When the Welsh Lib Dems start likening themselves to the UK Independence Party, you know they are heading for a fall, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly.
The big political fight now reaching its climax is which party will win the fourth European seat in Wales.
Labour, the Tories and Plaid are all certain to be returned with one each in Thursday’s vote. But who will gain the seat being vacated by Eluned Morgan ? Labour are by now certain to be deprived of their second seat in Wales.
Will the Tories or Plaid be rewarded with a second seat ? Or will the fourth seat go to the Lib Dems, who thought they might have won it four years ago ? Or to UKIP – but that is a party which is regarded as so stockbroker-belt oriented that its support in Wales is pretty miniscule. ?
Peter Black, the highly-regarded AM for South West, is master-minding the Lib Dem attempt by academic Alan Butt Phillip to claim the fourth seat.
When the press quizzed the party on its prospects, Mr Black was careful not to play them up too much. Unfortunately, he seemed to be accepting that really his party doesn’t possess much hope this time around.
He told us, “The fourth party; is it us or UKIP ?”
Which, to me, that means no seat for a fourth party, but rather a second seat for Plaid or the Tories. As the Tories have done little to help themselves (by the MPs’ expenses rumpus; or through ensuring that the first three of their candidates all sport English addresses) – surely it must be a return to Strasbourg for Eurig Wyn after five years away.
The only hope for the Lib Dems is that there is a lot of truth in Assembly leader Kirsty Williams’s claim that “we have a lot more activity on the ground than five years ago”.
The party has been highlighting the Euro-poll for its position in a continuum, possessing a “momentum” which will lead them to successive seat gains in Europe, followed by Westminster and in Cardiff Bay in 2011.
As it’s difficult to see where the Lib Dems will manage to add a seat at Westminster – bearing in mind they are almost certain to lose Ceredigion – never mind in Cardiff Bay, perhaps we should be asking whether there is a future any more for a fourth party in Wales
What about the Greens? I haven't seen any opinion polls specific to Wales, but the support for The Green Party in the recent ICM poll was at 11%
yeah, but in England the Greens are the fourth party. In Wales we have four parties, so the greens would be the fifth or something. And anyhow, with all the main parties rushing to steal… erm… adopt green policy, do the greens promise anything that the others don't? (Don't get me wrong, Plaid aside I'm very much of a Greenparty mind.)
And it says something that Welsh Labour have even failed to conduct the obvious whispering campaign against the Tory lead candidate's attitude to her employers' money (completely within-the-rules, naturally) and her skillful property investments in Herefordshire. Running that in Cardiff and the Vale might just have saved their bacon, or at worst got a Lib Dem elected. Do Labour have any strategists left, or have they followed the members out of the door? Or are their coffers so depleted that they're scared of Dr Swinburne getting litigious at them?