Mistrust

THE DEPTH of mistrust between the Plaid Cymru side of the coalition and the Labour Party in London was starkly revealed in a sudden explosion earlier today, writes Clive Betts from the press gallery,

The Welsh Labour Party issued a statement at noon on Tuesday from Rhodri Morgan and Peter Hain, Secretary of State for Wales, which was read differently by the two coalition parties.

It is clear that Labour is more cautious on a referendum that Plaid Cymru. Labour fears that a No vote “could set back devolution for several decades”. Of course, some senior figures in Labour have an aim of “setting back devolution for ever”.

Mr Hain has never been one of that group. But he has the unenviable task of trying to keep his party in one piece.

And he must also work within the perameter that most Labour party members give precedence to the London general election, which means that not much will happen until that has been held.

The crucial point raised by Plaid during the Tuesday plenary exchanges is what will happen as far as Assembly decisions are concerned during the January to March period next year, when Plaid hopes that the path will be opened towards the much-needed referendum on extra power s.

And would the referendum they hope to see be held next autumn ?

Mr Morgan said in plenary that was not a matter for him, but for his successor, together with the deputy coalition leader Ieuan Wyn Jones.

Some people say the coalition will break up on this issue. But such  people have never been to Ireland, where coalitions are normal.

But, bear in mind, there are two views trying to co-exist within one coalition. The Labour line is that a referendum should not be fought until it is clear it is likely to be won. The Plaid line is that a referendum should be fought as soon as possible.

If it is lost with a Tory government in office, the politics can be engineered so that a second referendum can be tabled which will more easily be won.  At least, that is my view.

Of course, with a Tory government in office, the politics can be engineered so that a referendum should quite easily be won.

But, then, Labour doesn’t believe (not officially, anyway)  that the Tories will win the next election. Which makes the dynamics of Welsh politics slightly different. Which of course also changes the likelihood of a victory for a Yes campaign.