ARE WE seeing a new-style Tory party in the Assembly, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery ?

Nick Bourne has done much to rescue the party group in the Assembly from the right-wing days when everyone harked back to Thatcherism.

Comments, for instance, on the party’s central policy towards Europe consistently leaned towards the line that there was no need for a referendum once every country had accepted the Lisbon treaty … hardly a line which the party’s Euro-sceptics are very keen on.

The latest stage in the re-make came with the room where the party’s group of AMs held its weekly meeting.

On the outside it was broadly labelled “Equal Opportunities Committee”.

Now that was the committee from which a Tory AM was ejected because his publicised ideas were so much at variance with the committee’s aims.

David Davies, the former AM for Monmouth, was replaced by one of his more-acceptable colleagues.

But David is now confined to Westminster. And the party group is meeting in a room marked for the committee he was ejected from.

As they say, the Tory party is changing fast.

 

Carwyn Jones CARWYN JONES has often been accused of being lazy, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Those of us who have known him for a long time wonder whether that accusation is entirely fair.

And now  Lib Dem leader and farmer’s wife Kirsty Williams  pointed out that there are TWO Carwyn Joneses.

There is the agriculture minister who was hurled into the job the day before the Royal Welsh Show opened in Builth

Not long after that, the foot-and-mouth crisis descended on Wales. That involved the burning and burial of immense numbers of animal carcases.

This period of high feelings saw the minister rushing across Wales dealing with crises left, right and centre. In the heights of the Brecon Beacons, it also saw a driverless tractor hurtling down towards him … why or how we have never been told.

Ms Williams said the farming industry had noticed the two different Carwyns. The first was lively and energetic. That individual lasted for about two years.

But then things slipped back. That was when people started describing him as lazy.

Ms Williams wondered whether the change came about when Mr Jones got fed up with being stuck in the same specialised ministry. At each cabinet reshuffle – and, to be fair, there haven’t been many – or possibility of a reshuffle, he ended up in the same post.

The Lib Dem leader’s view fits in with the line that Mr Jones mentioned to me once when I was still on the Western Mail – prior to the five years when the “national newspaper of Wales” had NO reporter based at the Assembly.

He told me and the Daily Post reporter that he was getting fed up with the job because there was so little to do. Of course, Mr Jones’s father was not a farmer – which would have meant she had been inbred with the minutiae of agricultural officialdom – but an official for an educational professional association.

Ms Williams also agreed that the serious illness his wife Lisa had suffered – now overcome – may have had an effect on his work attitude.

Ms Williams hopes that her feelings about Mr Jones’s attitude to his job – his current post of Counsel General is also almost a non-post – will be borne out when he takes on the party leadership, and the post of First Minister which goes with it.

The new challenge will, she hopes, reinvigorate him to become like the agriculture minister he was at the beginning.

God help us otherwise, was her attitude.

 

PLAID ISN’T too happy with the London government attitude to the amount of money which Cardiff gets to run Wales each year, writes Clive Betts from writes the Assembly press gallery.

The Assembly is worse than even a community council; they can raise their own rates while the Assembly has to depend 100 pc on London.

The  commission set up by the Assembly to investigate the workings of the Barnett formula – which decides how much goes to each of the devolved administrations – uncovered that Wales is underfunded.

Surprise, surprise !

But the Treasury decided to do nothing about it. Mr Darling’s department argued there was currently no problem.

The lack-of-cash problem is caused by something known as the Barnett Squeeze. This squeeze is caused by the amount of money Cardiff receives rising each year.  But each year the increase is less than the previous year.

The Treasury argued that this squeeze happened only when total UK funding is rising each year.

Which isn’t happening at the moment.

But Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones that the squeeze is in fact still happening.

That is because while the amount of money being sent to Wales each year is no longer rising in real terms, it is in cash terms – which means the squeeze is still active.

Mr Jones said, “The Treasury was saying, it will happen in the future [meaning, in the long term]. We are responding by saying, it will happen in the next five years.”

I somehow think that can be better phrased. It’s surely happening now; so what this about five years ?

 

AS CAMBRIA forecast a couple of weeks ago, it is not the Labour Party who will decide the issue of who becomes the next First Minister, writes Clive Betts from the press gallery.

The individual AMs will decide. Which opens up the possibility that the individual AMs will be able to reject whoever the Labour Party chooses as its leader.

When the question was asked of the Conservative and Lib Dem parties a couple of weeks ago, both doubted whether they would avail themselves of the tempting idea of trying to create chaos and vote down the new First Minister.

And when the same question was asked yesterday, the answer was – more or less – the same.

Quite simply, because the numbers don’t add up. Labour and Plaid would certainly vote together. Which would ensure an automatic majority for whichever name Labour puts forward.

The detail was spelled out in a briefing given by senior Assembly officials on Monday. The terms are reproduced in the Western Mail.

Briefly, every day the Assembly is trying to become more like the Mother of Parliaments – with all the sins, protocol and problems which that involves. And secrecy as to what goes on.

A name of the proposed new First Minister is put to the Assembly; the Assembly votes on it; having received and acceded to the resignation of the previous incumbent, the Queen must then receive the record of the vote of the Assembly; she then appoints Mr Carwyn Jones, Mrs Edwina Hart, or Mr Huw Lewis to the vacant position of First Minister.  Well, not the two last named.

All a bit of a fandangle.

But it keeps the monarchists happy.

And the fax machines busy, too.  Although, apparently, a formal letter will be sent as well. Let’s hope that a postman’s branch doesn’t chose that day to go on strike.

Let’s also hope that the Queen doesn’t get ill or go walkabout. Because that would delay the entire process. As it is, the Assembly officials have worked an extra day or so into their timetable for the new person to take over.

 

Huw and Edwina soon to goTHE TREMENDOUS result which saw Carwyn Jones easily returned as leader of the Assembly Labour Party group  – but not, I believe, as leader of the party in Wales; that job goes to a Scotsman – should lead to a period of peace with that party, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Mr Jones’s ability to win a PR vote without the need for a single recount sends the bluntest message possible to the entire Welsh party.

If I were Mrs Hart, a former president of the National Union of Banking Employees, perhaps I’d start looking for a job with Lloyds Bank.

And why, the day after the result, did her agent Andrew Davies announce he was standing down from the Assembly in 2011. His excuse was that he wanted a more rounded personal life.

If that’s shorthand for a woman, make sure there’s mutual respect between you for each other’s achievements.

Another possible reason is that he doesn’t fancy a lot of time in opposition. Particularly as fixing deals with the opposition was his raison d’etre when he served as business minister under the Alun Michael minority administration.

Although he was a former party full-timer in Transport House, he was broad-minded enough to realise that there was much that was good in the other parties.

He was also one of those in the Labour Party who was not afraid of the press. That party often has dreadful difficulties handling the press – very similar to Plaid Cymru. Although in complete contradistinction to both the Lib Dems and the Tories.

I can recall two of us journalists once having a deep political discussion with Andrew late one evening on Cardiff Central station – he on the Swansea platform, and we some way away on the Valleys platforms. Goodness knows who else was listening.

Perhaps one of the reasons for his decision is that the size of Carwyn’s win means that the new First Minister is truly his own man in what he does about the shape of his cabinet. You can be sure there will be a lovely job for Rhondda AM (and former Lib Dem) Leighton Andrews.

But what about the Gower AM ? Mrs Hart didn’t do herself many favours in her conceding speech; too much about herself. And it is her own personality which is her weak (or, as some would say, her strong) point.

As to Huw Lewis, he presumably realises that the size of his vote indicates that he is in danger of emulating the Communist Party of GB in votes terms. Of course, they had good ideas to the very end, which they continued to believe in. But politics and life had passed them by. Ditto Huw. And that’s without living in Penarth.

Interesting to note that Huw’s younger son – who must be aged around six – was present at the official declaration at the Millennium Centre, with eyes and ears all awake, sitting next to mother Lynne Neagle, the AM for Torfaen.  There sat certainly the next generation of Labour activism in Wales.

Whether Huw will get anywhere under Carwyn, I know not. Let it be remembered, however, that Huw’s first ministerial resignation was aimed in Carwyn, over the disposal of foot-and-mouth carcases.

Huw was criticised in full plenary at the time by a fellow Labour AM for his entire mishandling of the issue. His attacking of a minister (Carwyn) should have been handled entirely differently. He should not have based his line on his own personal feelings, but on the feelings of his constituents … which he felt obliged to pass on to the minister.

It’s difficult to see Carwyn finding any post for such an individual in his cabinet. After all, the second resignation was over the formation of the Labour-Plaid coalition, which Carwyn now has to keep in existence.

 

Jonathan EdwardsThese are certainly exciting times for Plaid Cymru.  A General Election when we expect to win the largest amount of Parliamentary seats in our history; an Autumn or 2011 New Year referendum on full law making powers within devolved competencies; and a Welsh General Election in 2011.     From a personal perspective it’s great to be back full time in active politics at the heart of the national movement; the political equivalent of playing central midfield for the national football team every day of the year!

Over the next 18 months the future of Wales for a generation will be shaped.  In this period, Plaid has the best opportunity in its history of replacing a discredited Labour party as the dominant political force in our country.  It’s an opening we have a duty to grasp.

A new political environment will be shaped following the General Election.  It is highly likely that we are looking at significant Tory victory across the UK.   If tensions between the UK Government and the devolved Administrations have been all too often visible with a Labour Government in Westminster, imagine what it’s going to be like with a Tory Government in London that is at best suspicious of devolved politics.

The Labour party will inevitably implode after their defeat.  In the medium term it has two choices in Wales.  Firstly it grows up and becomes a party that genuinely promotes progressive nationalism – making itself relevant to the new political environment, or it continues along the path to self destruction with its current political malaise due to its own deep splits.

When Labour enjoyed political hegemony over our country it was able to pacify the two warring factions within its ranks by playing the politics of the lowest common denominator.   Opposition parties working within this context had no option but to grit their teeth and bear it.   Unfortunately for Labour, in the space of a few years their hegemonic control over Welsh politics (that lasted the best part of a century) disappeared.  And the trajectory is only going one way.    In the new plural political environment of modern Wales, Labour’s current approach will be ruthlessly exposed – the events within the Government of Wales only last week are a case in point.

In the face of a Tory Westminster Government, the alternative narrative will not be a replacement New Labour London Government – but rather the development of Welsh political democracy and sovereignty.   As someone who has spent the last two years of my life campaigning directly for social justice with the CAB movement, it became evidently clear that Wales doesn’t have power over the real leavers to fully tackle social inequity.   That is why, if elected, my political future will be in Westminster until Wales has control over the benefits system and fiscal autonomy are devolved.  Northern Ireland already has administrative control over the benefits system and even the unionist parties in Scotland are campaigning for fiscal autonomy.  We want Wales to have the same rights as our Celtic cousins – why should we accept less?

There are those in the Labour party who accuse us of navel-gazing over the constitutional question.  What they fail to acknowledge is that political power is the key to driving forward the social justice agenda.  Without the tools to do the job – no craftsman no matter its skill can achieve its task.   Are the unionists in their midst seriously arguing that a Tory Government in London is likely to deliver on the social justice more than a government of progressives in Wales?

The political dynamic of post General Election Wales will therefore be between a Conservative right wing, South-East-of-England-Centric UK Government in conflict with an increasingly Plaid dominated Government of Wales.   If Labour fail to react to this new political dynamic they will become increasingly marginalised.  Peter Hain is only half right – the real political choice is between Plaid and the Tories.

At this stage it’s important to pay tribute to the way in which current Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones, an Amman Valley boy like myself having been born and raised in Garnswllt, is creating the new Wales.  Ieuan knows where the future strategic battles lie.  Apart from his contribution in steering Wales through the recession, his major contribution will be the way that he has paved the way and shaped the future of so many young politicians.

With Wales’ most effective political campaigner in Bethan Jenkins and the party’s Director of Policy Nerys Evans already elected at the Senedd, Ieuan has facilitated the development of the likes of the next Jennie Eirian in Myfanwy Davies , the hugely talented Steffan ‘Next But One’ Lewis, forensic thinker Colin Nosworthy and ultra impressive Heledd Fychan.

Added to this, he has managed to recruit a group of exceptionally gifted young staffers and advisers to drive Plaid’s ambitions.  Having individuals as talented and committed as this team must make other political parties in Wales not only envious but also extremely worried.

A lesser leader would have pinned down the ‘young Turks’ in the party in order to preserve his own position.  His selflessness is creating the new Wales that will shape the future of our nation.

In doing so Ieuan has not only ensured an increasingly impressive team to lead, but has also provided his party with a new generation of politicians ready to lead Wales to justice and prosperity well in to the future.

I am confident that the future is bright – and I’m convinced the future is Plaid.

Jonathan Edwards

Plaid Prospective Candidate, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr

Cambria Books

New publication.
New translation of the Physicians of Myddfai by Terry Breverton

Cambria Books

New publication. Entertaining guide to the US Elections by Denis Campbell.
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