A LO vote is a NO vote

In my capacity as a ‘bellwhether’…

A bellwhether is any entity that serves to presage future happenings.

The term is derived from the Middle English bellewether and refers to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a wether) leading his flock of sheep.^[1][2] The movements of the flock could be noted by hearing the bell before the flock was in sight.

I am ringing a bell of warning to all those who think a YES vote in the upcoming  referendum in Wales is a foregone conclusion.  There is no logic to this and the polls, such as they are, appear to be overwhelmingly in favour. The YES campaign has marketed itself very well (compared to the NO campaign) given the limited resources  but, but … I fear that we appear to be on the verge of a ‘black swan ‘ moment in Welsh politics.

I can’t avoid the alarm bell ringing perceptions that:

The Business community is lukewarm and ambivalent to the point of outright antagonism because of the dire performance of WAG on the economy. There is outward ‘lip service’  but the thoughts and private discussions are strongly negative. The ‘economic’ argument has not been made effectively enough.

Whatever they say or state to the contrary the perception appears to be that this is about Nationalism or will lead to separation and break up of the UK. It is only in certain rapidly shrinking areas of Wales that this would be perceived as a positive outcome. This ‘slippery slope’ contention by the NO campaigners has been their most deployed weapon and there is no denying its potency in certain quarters.

People have not forgotten or forgiven politicians for ‘expenses’, the poor performance of the economy, the terrible educational attainment results or lack of action against the ‘bankers’. People are no longer wondering whose side politicians are  on – they know, they don’t like it and are still angry.

The rugby team is lacking in confidence and the WAG is losing the confidence of the people. It is no longer sufficient to put James Hook back in at No.10.

There is strong undercurrent that says if all the politicians are in favour then I am against it on the principle that if it’s good for them it can’t be good for me.

Some think a YES vote will give too much power and influence to Plaid Cymru a minority Nationalist party which appears not to represent the non-Welsh speaking majority. This is clearly wrong on every count but it can’t be denied that this perception exists predominantly in the Valleys and populous urban areas.

There is an argument that says you can still be a ‘patriotic’ Welsh man or woman  and proud of it but still vote NO. This linkage between voting YES and ‘patriotism’ is no longer tenable.

There is a perception, especially amongst women and the young, that this is a non-issue and not worth turning out to vote for or against hence the predictions for a very low turnout. A low turnout favours no-one, let alone the political process.

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As a potential YES voter I myself must face up to these negative influences and I call on the YES campaign to move up a gear and quickly. For Plaid in particular a NO vote or a LO vote will lead to their eventual disappearance from the political scene. This is their watershed moment.