On the whole and in comparison with most other nations, Wales has very good politicians. With few exceptions they are hard-working, intelligent, dedicated competitive and ambitious men and women. There is no good reason to class them alongside the crooks and spivs of society or to denigrate their work.
The failures of policy and government is mostly failures of society rather than attempts by political parties to improve life, implement their policies or redress wrongs. For example, WAG has been blamed for the poor performance of Wales (compared to England) in health, education and the economy, but in my view, this is mainly the fault of poor doctors, poor teachers and useless business people. To blame the politicians for teachers who can’t or are too politically correct and frightened to teach is wrong. To blame politicians for a health service that people are afraid to use and spends too much time diagnosing rather than treating is wrong. To blame politicians for a poor economy is to misunderstand the nature of Welsh demographics, its industrial history and the business markets..
That said, on May 5th, a choice must be made as to which pack of politicians should occupy the Assembly buildings in Cardiff Bay to ostensibly ‘represent’ our views. In spite of an inclination to usually vote for personalities (that I like or have empathy with), it is probably best to first read through the various policy manifestos that have been published and to make a voting preference based on these. The manifestos have been analysed and discussed in detail by much more competent commentators than me so, for more detailed, less biased and more intelligent analysis, I refer the reader to Wales Home, Click on Wales or Syniadau.
In summary, my thoughts prior to the election are as follows:
Labour’s main thrust of the campaign is to (somehow) ‘ protect people from Tory cuts’. This basically means protect the public sector from cuts (which they would have made anyway). There is little else of substance and nothing new or radical in their programme. ie. More of the same.
The Lib Dems have been squeezed by being tarred with a Tory brush and have found it impossible to find a distinctive voice. It is a pity that they haven’t made more of their main attractive policy of raising the income tax threshold (a real vote winner). Of course, they seem to have pissed off the students which is probably not a good thing to do since this is where ‘political activism’ stems from.
The Conservatives are on the march again in Wales (because of the change to an older more ‘English’ rural demographic, rapid shrinkage of Labour industrial heart lands, and growth of urban areas) but are still let down by relatively weak candidates, a non-local perception (Cheryl Gillan, duh?) and completely bizarre, inappropriate focus on ‘entrepreneurship’ and PFI as a way out of economic stagnation.
Plaid Cymru have made the most of a relatively weak hand dealt them under the One Wales agreement so they go into the election on about par with last time. The manifesto is the best written of all the parties and actually contains one or two nuggets of interest amongst the usual socialistic platitudes – such as a plan to use credit unions as a way of localising financing mechanisms. Their media and online activity is streets ahead of the other parties and this is an attraction in itself to anoraks such as myself although probably ineffective at getting more votes from the general populace.
Therefore, on the merits of the manifesto, and just plain personal preference, Plaid Cymru gets the vote.
The ‘Bellwhether’ race of this election is Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire where only a handful of votes separate the parties in contention. The candidates themselves, Angela Burns (Con), Christine Gwyther (Lab), Selwyn Runnett (LibDem) and Nerys Evans (PC) seems to embody and epitomise everything about their respective parties. It will be fascinating to see how it turns out – it is too close to call at the moment. I can say, however, that if Plaid lose this it will be much more of a disaster than for the other Parties because it is a ‘must win’ seat if Plaid is to have any kind of a future in mainstream Welsh politics.