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The new Welsh Tories

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics 3 Responses »

Nov 022011

During the Falklands war, a BBC reporter famously remarked that he had “counted” Fleet Air Arm planes in and had “counted them back”. Perhaps we should start doing the same with the significantly-enhanced group of 13 Conservative AMs.

Not that there is a fear that some might be lost in combat in a plenary session, or that they might fly off to political pastures new. that’s not a risk, particularly with Plaid (very well known to some of them) in its present state. But the party now possesses a new group leader, Vale of Glamorgan farmer Andrew RT (initials to distinguish him from the former Labour minister) Davies. And Mr Davies, regional AM for South Central, is a person who will listen carefully before deciding. Which is as a politician should do. The difference, of course, is that his predecessor Nick Bourne (Mid & West) was a man with beliefs. Beliefs so strong that he managed to rebuild the group totally from the days it was led by the lively right-winger Rod Richards, who headed an extremely strong campaign for a No vote to an Assembly, and didn’t seem to have changed his opinions much after he had won election.

Nick Bourne is the most obvious casualty of the Labour Party gerrymandering which changed the rules so that a politician could stand for either a constituency or a regional seat – not both. He was unseated when Russell George won Montgomery from the Lib Dems on Mick Bates’s retirement. Labour, of course, didn’t like the idea of dual-candidacy because it could help other parties. (When Labour changed the law they didn’t need to win any regional seats; currently, they have two, because they have won no constituency seats in Mid & West).

No-one doubts the new leader’s Welshness. He has better claims than his predecessor, who was from Worcestershire, although he had been in Wales since student days in Aberystwyth. Mr Davies’s family roots are in Newbridge on- Wye in Powys. His father moved to the Vale to start farming witha 70-acre smallholding until he became a tenant near St. Hilary, Cowbridge, before buying the farm and expanding. (Into how many acres – on two holdings, the other next door to former First Minister Rhodri Morgan at Michaelston-le-Pit – he won’t say. It’s not a done-question, apparently in the Vale!) the real difference between the pair could be over political stance. Mr Bourne was a leader in the left-wing Tory Reform Group, a grouping which fails to line up precisely with the political direction favoured by the Daily Mail and its numerous friends.

Leading members of the TRG include Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, former Welsh Secretary and current Foreign Secretary William Hague, a predecessor in Cathays Park, Peter Walker, David Davis (who quit as MP and then fought the subsequent by-election in protest at erosion of civil liberties), the Llanelli-born MP Robert Buckland (you might remember him from the Islwyn by-election after Neil Kinnock moved on), and Rene Kinzett, Tory group leader of Swansea council. This is the group which hoists aloft the once-discarded banner of one-nation Toryism. Prime Minister David Cameron may not be a member, but he’s certainly a supporter.

Mr Bourne never trumpeted his membership, and Mr Davies is careful not to pick sides on the issue. He talks of his need to represent a group with members from David Melding (South Central) who talks of the need for federalism, to Darren Millar (Clwyd West), who uses language Margaret Thatcher would have favoured. Mr Melding, in contrast, believes Thatcher’s name cripples the party in Wales. But then Mr Millar is a fellow federalist (though, no doubt, they don’t agree completely on that topic!). New in the post, and shadowed extremely closely in the leadership contest by party Leftist Nick Ramsay (despite claims, no recount was needed – there weren’t that many votes), it is perhaps no surprise that Mr Davies is cautious in his views. He is certainly going to be cautious about the possibility of distancing his group from the Tories at Westminster. Even talking about such issues as the Assembly’s controversial voting system.

Cheryl Gillan has already opened her mind to some sort of change to the constituency/regional system. But at present the Welsh Tory leader refuses to take the chance of forging something really radical and democratic, such as the single transferable vote – a system which could produce five-seat constituencies, withall members elected, Irish-style, by PR.

Mr Davies would rather see how the political-land lies. That’s why we’ve got to count his members in and out. How many of his group of 14 lean somewhat left-wards? It’s much easier to count those who don’t: just William George (SouthEast) and Darren Millar, surely. the Rights are easily outnumbered by the Lefties, ranging from the shadow minister (but then they’ve all got that position) whose ancestor faced the slashing sword blades of the 15th Hussars at Manchester in 1819 in a demonstration for Parliamentary reform, to the former Pleidwr.

I fancy the rest are in the middle. And middle-of-the road Tories always want to make whatever it is they are a member of, work, in the hope that the electorate will eventually give them their votes in gratitude. Which is why, of course, the (non-Thatcherite) Tories are the habitual governing party of much of Britain.

gan Clive Betts

Plaid’s Future

Opinion, Plaid Cymru, Welsh Politics 3 Responses »

Nov 022011

In little more than six months’ time, the May local elections will tell us whether Plaid Cymru has slid below the current lowly rankings of the Liberal Democrats – or will once again be aspiring to occupy the first division of Welsh politics.

In the wake of disastrous Assembly election results (which, we must recall, saw Plaid retreating almost everywhere and ceding the position of official opposition to the Tories) the signs are certainly not too good. Indeed, the Tories are on such a high at present that they are convinced they will come second to Labour in terms of council seats held. And belief can be more important than the truth – in particular among the party volunteers who do most of the local authority foot-slogging.

Andrew RT Davies, the Tories’ Assembly leader, talks proudly of controlling the same number of councils as Labour (two out of 22). But in reality, that tells us only how far Labour has sunk – no doubt to rise again under the leadership of Carwyn Jones.

The truth is, out of 1,263 seats, Plaid currently holds 207, Labour 351, the Tories 172; and the ‘Independents’ and others, 378. Of the parties, Plaid controls Caerffili and Gwynedd, and the Tories run Monmouth and Vale of Glamorgan. Admittedly, working out who else runs or controls our other authorities then becomes difficult. Certainly Labour remain top-dog, with an absolute majority on Rhondda Cynon Tâf and Neath Port Talbot; while Bridgend and Torfaen are run with the benefi t of a few ‘winks-and-nods’ from other parties, particularly in the case of Plaid in Torfaen.

Tory leader Andrew Davies is very cautious about making a forecast for May. After all, it was Margaret Thatcher who boasted (after her party’ gains in 1983) that she would, next time, field an entire rugby team of Welsh MPs. “Next time”, of course, saw her party start on its slide into near oblivion within Wales.

For Plaid, this year’s council by-elections added to May’s Assembly disaster, with the party vote down 3% to only 19%, while the Tories rose 3% to 25%, thus indicating that yet another potential disaster beckons next Spring..

In May, Plaid lost two seats, one of them (in Uwchaled, Conwy) simply because no candidate was fielded. However, in Gwynedd, the party held one (so it should, in an authority it is supposed to dominate) and gained another from the Lib Dems.

The acceptable news was that all other by-elections were fought – even in Torfaen, where the party risked voting ridicule in an area where the late-lamented Labour ‘backroomer’, John Vaughan Jones once crowed that a Plaid candidate had managed to achieve the lowest-vote ever in a poll.

One of the councils which Plaid considers to be theirs by right – because they are the largest party or group – is Ceredigion. Unfortunately, there have been no by-elections in the county to help us assess their current standings in this bastion of Plaid support. But a warning of a tough fight ahead in this area might be heeded from AM Elin Jones’s experiences last May. Both the Conservatives and Labour gained support, while the Lib Dems (who hold the Parliamentary seat) slipped slightly. But – more to the point for Plaid – Elin’s backing fell 8% per cent to 41%.

The only unalloyed good news was to be found in Carmarthenshire. There Plaid soared brilliantly to gain Llanegwad – is this an augury for winning control of County Hall, where the party is currently the largest?

Unfortunately, some at the top of Plaid too easily believe in the ‘swings-and-roundabouts’ theory: that sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, but it all works out OK in the end. Plaid reckons it won the battle of the Cabinet in the Assembly by forcing Labour to work rather than rest on its laurels, and to deliver policies that are good for Wales rather than purely for Labour. Plaid even forced the government to find the money to activate policies that, under Labour, were heading for delay – such as trains to Ebbw Vale; even though the promised link to Newport remains missing.

If Plaid were in government, the badger cull (aimed at curbing bovine TB in cattle) would already be under way – rather than delayed endlessly, either because Labour lack the experience of standing up and taking a lead, or they are devotedly following the London line. Unfortunately, the Tories seem better prepared for next May. They are certainly giving local government minister Carl Sargeant a hard time of the shambles of a ‘reorganisation’ that the Cabinet is inching towards. Moreover, the Tories are not scared to air their thoughts, yet when Plaid comes up with some positive ideas, it almost keeps the results under wraps. For example, the party conference debated the need for a local government manifesto based on a Valleys jobs-creation programme which would be implemented by Plaid-run councils throughout Wales. But who knows that? There was not a word about it on the party’s website: it is as if Plaid is scared of revealing its bright ideas to anyone else.

It will be a tough fight for Plaid next May. The party will sorely need leadership from the front, to make up for a lack of members on the ground in some regions. Elin Jones argues that Plaid needs a leader who will be “ambitious for Wales”: one who, while mindful of the Welsh-language activists, is also concerned for “the Swansea plumber and the retired couple from Wigan living in Pwllheli”. As she said, the party has indeed “stagnated of late”, yet with nominations for the new leader not opening until nearly Christmas, little time remains for the new leader to raise spirits and enthuse the party into believing that – come May – Plaid is no longer in retreat.

gan Clive Betts

State of the Welsh Assembly

Opinion, Welsh Politics No Responses »

Aug 252011

There’s not a single doubt that Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones is dog-tired, although he puts in a stout and dogged performance during the weekly ritual of First Minister’s questions. But, behind the public bravado, Ieuan is sad and disappointed. He is a gentleman – although that’s not quite the right term for the son of a Welsh nonconformist minister – who has been dastardly traduced during six months of bear-baiting by those who claim to represent what’s left of the unthinking working class.
In the meantime, First Minister Carwyn Jones is desperately keen to avoid any repeat of those troubles in past Assemblies which could so nearly cripple an administration that relies on only 30 votes (however unstable and rocky some might prove) in a house of 60 members. But after the treatment Ieuan Wyn Jones has received, it looks as if Carwyn Jones will have to whistle for the support of Kirsty Williams’s Liberal Democrats if he is ever in need of help.
In the Senedd, Plaid is a sorry sight. In a crisis, you need to show strength, and Plaid’s London press office know that, and they succeed in getting their message across. Cardiff’s staff should really go back to their mother’s apron strings as it’s a tough world out here. To some extent, the situation in Cardiff is a reflection of how Ieuan works: he’s too much the son of a minister who preaches to the saved and the faithful, and avoids the sinners. Unfortunately, there are times when it seems there are more of the latter than the former. Plaid AMs agree that Dafydd Wigley – Ieuan’s predecessor, whom he prevented from returning as leader when medical problems proved far less serious than feared – would not have put up with the treatment that is now crippling both Ieuan and his party. Instead, someone would have ended up with a metaphorical bloody nose.
Fortunately, a revival is at hand. It’s being planned for Llandudno, where Plaid’s annual conference meets in September. And, it’s being planned by our ‘lord on earth’, none other than Lord Elis-Thomas, the AM for Dwyfor-Meirionydd, and recently the pioneer, longserving and deservedly-feted Presiding Officer of the Assembly.
Elis-Thomas is 64 and is spoiling for a new challenge. Plaid needs rebuilding fast and Dafydd has the background, knowledge and overall perspective to realise that the party’s tactics must be much broader and cleverer than believing that Labour voters are the only group House of Lords worth attracting.
Two other Plaid AMs are also stern critics of Ieuan’s belief that he can chose when he departs sometime during the next two years over the next two years when he departs. The mobile phone-shy Elin Jones is justifiably annoyed that her party’s failed election tactics have ensured that the farmers she fought for as a well-regarded minister are now suffering from Labour’s shilly-shallying on badger culling. Certainly the Ceredigion AM has for a long time been quietly thinking she could do a good job as party leader, but has always refrained from coming forward for fear of the intrusiveness into an individual’s private life which fighting for and holding that position nowadays involves. Also considering his position is the Mid and West AM, policy-wonk Simon Thomas. While Elin suffers from the public view that she is too rural and Welsh-speaking, Simon is a son of Aberdare who can trade it with the most-unreconstructed in the Labour Party.

Tory leadership
Angela Burns waxed eloquent in the closing days of the contest to replace Nick Bourne as the Assembly’s Conservative Party.
“We need someone to appeal to all parties, not just to our own faithful,” opined the AM for Carmarthen East and South Pembroke in the Assembly canteen. And her man is Nick Ramsay, Monmouth AM. Thanks to his speaking and debating ability, Nick has apparently wiped the floor with his opponent Andrew Davies during the party hustings,. But Nick is 36, and most of his life has been spent in politics, which the party faithful sometimes despise. However, Andrew is 43, and boasts the outside occupation of farming, which appeals more to the faithful. Nick lost, although closely (53-47). Which means the issue is still open.

Jocelyn
Jocelyn Davies (Plaid Cymru regional list AM for South Wales East) doesn’t sport the highest profile in the Assembly, but she has several quiet victories to her name. For example, it was the coalition’s deputy housing minister who helped highlight the idiocy of the Labour-authored farce of Cardiff passing laws only after Westminster had acted as a detailed second chamber. Jocelyn doesn’t throw all the blame at Westminster’s door for what was essentially one bill being rejected in London and another having to be submitted. The replacement Legislative Competence Order (LCO) was, indeed, a big improvement. It included a load of items not covered in the original – such as a reinstatement of the requirement that councils have to provide accommodation for gypsies and travellers.
For those with long memories, this requirement was “thatchered” when that particular lady was Prime Minister – so suiting the prejudices of the Tory shires and middle classes. Although the issue became one of the first to be investigated in detail by the Assembly in its very early days, at the time, our AMs could do little more than talk. Little wonder the gypies complained there was too much talk and nothing much (if anything) happening.
But in 2006, the Assembly was allowed to grow a bit and apply for LCOs – and for MPs to object to this new power. The gypsy provisions went into the second version of the LCO. Of course, even now that LCO has been passed, the detailed legislation has still to follow …. but at least that can now happen under the Assembly Acts that Cardiff
can implement without interference.
If necessary, the Assembly can even cock a snook at Tory right-winger David Jones, the Clwyd West MP, minister at the Wales Office, who forced Cardiff to cut back (for purely doctrinaire Tory reasons) on its attempt to restrict right to buy of council houses in regions of housing pressure (such as pretty coastal villlages where David’s friends from England tend to buy up anything for sale, pricing out the locals). But Jocelyn is one of those who doesn’t know whether she wants again to be part of a Labour coalition.

The mindset of the assembly
Once, the Welsh Assembly’s sophisticated information systems were world class. But, it seems, less so. Indeed, the place is going seriously backwards. Many of you will have heard of wi-fi – essentially a radio system which enables computers to work without being plugged into a phone line. Well, during my day at the Assembly preparing this column, an AM asked me to confirm our proposed lunch venue.. he had found me by wandering around the buildings. He had, in fact sent me an e-mail, but I could only read that once I got home. Why? Because the Assembly office building is not provided with wi-fi. There are no means by which e-mails sent to and from AMs can link up with lap-top computers within the building. Worse, when I asked the then head of news at the Assembly why this was so, the reply came back: “What’s wi-fi ?” I fear, also, that Assembly is developing into a mindset which exists purely for the happiness of the permanent ‘village’ itself. Paper versions of agendas are no longer provided: you are supposed to use either download them onto your personal computer before you arrive, or view display screens outside committee rooms. Unfortunately, those screens may not display all the details you require – and without wi-fi, you can’t pick up them up from your own e-mail account. And when the Assembly first opened in 1999, the parties were delighted to provide lists of who was who and their contact details. But not now. Is this because someone has decided their revelation poses some spurious security risk? Have our AMs become too self-important? Or has someone stupidly decided that Google can provide for all our needs?
I have written before about the lack of physical contact between the public and AMs (we have no Westminsterstyle Lobby, for example). The situation is worsening rather than improving. Nowadays, a clear ‘them’ and ‘us’ feeling pervades the Assembly, and we are the excluded ones. Cardiff has tried to ape Westminster, often without
good reason. Hopes for Cardiff being an open institution are being steadily dashed.

gan Clive Betts (republished from the current issue of Cambria magazine)

Never trust a Tory in Ceredigion

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Mar 312011

Clive Betts comments in the wake of the Plaid spring conference in Cardiff.

TIPS FOR Elin Jones on how to deal with those pesky Lib Dems in Ceredigion in her forthcoming battle to retain her Assembly seat.

It seems that relations between Lib Dems and Plaid in Ceredigion are fairly easy.

They probably are, too, between Lib Dems and the local Tories.

Recent work by a local historian has inveiled a long period in which the Tories in that constituency were never-rans.

At election after election, the Tories didn’t bother to put forward a candidate.

Eventually, however, it seems some members of the hand-‘em, flog ‘em, shoot’em brigade decided it was about time that they revealed their true-blue blood.

The county Tory association decided to put forward a candidate for the contemporary equivalent of the Assembly. But the Tories wanted to use a back-door method in which to field a candidate for the Imperial Parliament.

They didn’t want to field their own candidate. Instead, they wanted Roderic Bowen, then the Lib MP, to stand as a joint candidate with the Tories for the 1950 election.

The man at the head of the move was a Tory whose family had already showed much ability to change its spots when it suited. Arthur Harford hailed from Falcondale, now a hotel on the outskirts of Lampeter.

In background, his family were bankers from Bristol – less said, the better, perhaps. Whether his methods had any similarity with those of the Scot Fred the Shred – whom we are not supposed to describe as a banker any more, say his lawyers – I do not know.

In any case, the Harford family from Falcondale had made some name for themselves earlier in the century. The candidate then for the Tories against the Liberals was J C Harford – was he the father of the Arthur who tried to ensnare the Liberals 50 years later?

JC made quite a name for himself in getting the railway built from Lampeter to Aberaeron. Unfortunately, he was also a strong Tory who opposed public money being used for the project. But, when sufficient private money didn’t come forward, he switched views.

A lot of Ceredigion public cash, from both county and district councils was used for a project of which he was chairman ! At the time, it got him lots of votes for Parliament, although not enough to win the seat.

The whole story of the later Tory bid to climb on the Liberal bandwagon is told in the just-arrived number of the local history annual, Ceredigion.

It’s written by Graham Jones, who makes use of his masterful knowledge of sources in the National Library at Aberystwyth.

The basic Tory aim was, because of their weakness in a wide range of constituencies in rural Wales, to make the local Liberals look like Tories. Very often, they didn’t have to try very hard.

Bowen was pretty right-wing. [He was also pretty Nationalist.]

But the difficulty was that he also very much in favour of the embryo National Health Service – which the Tories hated, much in the way that the Republicans in the United States currently hate Obama’s moves over health insurance.

To be truthful, of course, London arguments don’t count for that much in rural areas such as Ceredigion.

The local voters want to know what their candidates look like.

Which is why Elin is likely to be returned in May. And why Tory Assembly leader Nick Bourne will have to rely once again on his party’s inevitable failure in Ceredigion to allow him to soak up the unused constituency votes so that he can be returned with his usual seat on the regional list.

Liam’s a fox who doesn’t care about Wales

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Mar 292011

Clive Betts writes in the wake of the Plaid conference in Cardiff

NO SURPRISE that Defence Secretary Liam Fox is in trouble in the Government for ignoring policy.

So-called true-democrat family doctor Mr Fox has been shouting off about the UK’s aim in Libya being to kill the country’s leader Col Gaddafi.

In other words, regime change. That’s the way the right-wing in both Britain and America want to run the world. Do it our way, or you’re out.

Why is Cambria Politico bothering about the story ?

Because Mr Fox was a frequent star speaker at the Welsh Conservative Party’s annual southern consultation conference each autumn.

This was an annual event well attended by branches at which the central party, both in Wales and London, gave speeches to enthuse the troops. Unlike the more formal annual conference held each spring, delegates were given free rein in their responses. In other words, a worthwhile journalistic outing on a Saturday.

Mr Fox was invited because he was usually the most convenient Westminster front-bencher. His seat is in north Somerset.

Over the years he has attended, the Welsh party has gradually become more pro-devolution.

But in his speeches, one word never crossed his lips. That was the word “Wales”. As a Scot he would have known all about devolution and the issues involved. But every speech, when it mentioned a devolved subject was phrased purely in English terms.

As a GP, he would often mention health. But when he talked it was always about the English ministry, the secretary of state was the English secretary, and the policies were always English.

He did not even take his chance to slay the Labour-run Welsh government – for this was the time before the present Welsh coalition – for its incompence, stupidity, or for anything.

To him, Wales did not exist.

Mind you, Mr Fox did not take long to get out of his native Scotland. After he found he couldn’t find a winnable Westminster seat north of the border, he pushed off for one of the swishest areas of the Home Counties, to become a GP in Beaconsfield.

When addressing the Welsh, he showed himself off as a hide-bound right-winger, totally unable to accept the changes that were affecting Britain.

No surprise therefore that he wants British troops (some of the few that we’ve got left) to kill Gaddafi. The Mail on Sunday said that General Sir David Richards, the head of the Armed Forces, regards Fox as a “lightweight”. He is, of course, anti-Europe.

Of course, the story’s been denied. But from what we’ve seen of Mr Fox, he’s a lightweight who should be sent back to the world of Thatcher.

Is Mark saying – ‘Vote for Elin’ ?

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Mar 282011

Clive Betts writes after the Plaid conference in Cardiff

ELIN JONES caused a trifle of a stir among some visitors to Plaid Cymru’s spring conference in Cardiff.

In the midst of the letters page in the Aberystwyth weekly had appeared a short letter bearing her signature.

But the Cambrian News letter also carried another signature. That of Mark Williams, the MP for the same Ceredigion constituency.

Mark is a Lib Dem.

Nothing to worry about, said Elin. We were reminding people to vote Yes in the referendum on additional powers for the Assembly. We were both in agreement, and we thought the letter a good idea.

There was a joint campaign by the two parties in the constituency. Apparently, the Lib Dems took the south of the constituency, and Plaid the North. According to the Plaid person I spoke to, this was the opposite of where each party was stronger.

Relationships between the two parties locally are apparently regarded by voters locally as pretty good. And the letter reiterates that view.

Yet there’s an election due in a few weeks. And I would not have expected the two parties to be so lovey-dovey in such proximity to the poll.

I myself wondered whether the letter – in which Mark’s signature was the first – was a subtle attempt by the Lib Dems to hook onto the coat-tails of the almost certain winner in May.

Their underlying message could be – Elin’s the woman for this year. Remember that when Mark’s turn comes around again …

The only difficulty with that argument would be that the next time for Westminster will be post-Ceredigion. The seat will have been abolished in the reduction in size of the Commons and the abolition of a number of Welsh seats.

Who’s there for the post-election coalition in the Bay ?

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Mar 282011

Clive Betts writes after visiting the Plaid Cymru spring conference.

THERE SEEMED a quiet expectation in the Plaid spring conference at Cardiff that the May election will be followed by a continuation of business-as-usual in Cardiff Bay.

First Minister Carwyn Jones is – of course – aiming to win a clear overall majority. Labour has never achieved such a victory, and many say the additional-member voting system used in Wales was constructed – by Labour – to ensure that a coalition government would be the usual outcome of an election.

The system was certainly constructed to ensure that a Plaid Cymru majority would never come about. We’ve had that from former First Minister Rhodri Morgan no less; although the party was no doubt thinking about the balance of political forces that exist in the present world of Wales that exists at the moment.

For the sake of his troops’ enthusiasm, Carwyn is compelled to talk up the idea of gaining an overall victory. And no doubt to keep Peter Hain, the Neath MP, quiet for a moment or two.

You can be pretty sure that May 5 will see a swing towards Labour. They are of course the chief opponents of an unpopular coalition in Westminster. And you can also bet that Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne will be mourning the loss of several of his seats as the electorate take revenge for the cuts London is being forced to impose.

Although Plaid are also opponents of the London government, I heard no-one trumpeting that the Nationalists would be making much of an advance on that basis.

In other words, it’s going to be a difficult election. The recent You Gov/ITV Wales opinion poll forecast that Labour’s vote will rise 16pc on the 2007 result, and Plaid will drop 2pc.

This would give Labour either 32 or 33 of the Assembly’s 60 seats, compared with 26 today. A majority. But a big enough one ?

Labour’s already tried going-it-alone twice. First, under Alun Michael when the party won only 28 seats. When Rhodri Morgan took over, it did not take him too long to bring some sense to the Assembly by doing a deal with the Liberal Democrats.

In 2003, the party won precisely 30 seats, and they governed alone for that entire Assembly, despite both John Marek (Wrexham) and Peter Law (Blaenau Gwent) losing their designations as official Labour.

It proved a very tough time for the party, which made the current coalition with Plaid Cymru in 2007 an obvious option for Carwyn.

Whatever the MP for Neath may believe, the One Wales Coalition has proved quite a success, both in policies and personalities.

I spoke to a Plaid minister who felt that the sort of overall majority which Carwyn might win would be insufficient to justify the First Minister trying to go it alone … whatever Labour MPs might think.

Why would Carwyn be willing to throw sand in the eyes of Labour MPs ?

The fear of being held to ransom by a couple of his backbenchers (although no names were mentioned). The problem of illness among his members (Labour has suffered during the current Assembly from the long-term absence due to illness of Karen Sinclair (Clwyd South).

And then there’s the positive stability resulting from a continuation of the present coalition. Plaid accepts that if Labour gains seats, their own party may have to take a step backwards. Perhaps Plaid would lose a minister or deputy minister (again, no names were mentioned, or suggested !).

Of course, it is a bit of a mug’s game trying to image what an opinion poll will really mean when the election arrives. Particularly in Wales.

Not that Wales is a bit odd, but because the answer a pollster is given will almost always refer to a putative Westminster election, whatever the question that had been asked. Additionally, answers are usually biased towards the big two-party split in British politics.

Which means, when an answer is given, the Lib Dems are either forgotten or downgraded.

Although there has been desultory talk of a possible Lab-LibDem coalition being formed after the next election, the truth is that Kirsty Williams’s party is too small, with only six AMs at present. And probably fewer after the count. Pleidwyr were wondering whether the party would lose its South West list seat; probably they consider Peter Black too annoying a reminder that conscience should play a part in politics.

However, that loss seems unlikely as the party is unable to challenge for any constituency seats in that region; in addition, the list vote reaches a total which is close to the constituency figures (which spectacularly failed to happen in Mid and West). So, South West should be safe, even if students switch to another rparty (or, more likely, don’t reach the polling booth).

Some Pleidwyr were reckoning that Cardiff Central will be lost as Jenny Randerson removes herself to the Lords (or, as Wigley prefers to say, the Second Chamber). The seat is certainly stuffed with students. But their importance can be exaggerated. Last time, the turnout was very low.

Some say, this is a seat which relies on the left-wing Lib Dem tradition (which Jenny occupies – as long as you don’t want to park for nothing at a hospital),

But the Lib Dems success in Cardiff Central has been built over years, and it has relied probably more on beating the Tories in a long string of middle class wards which that party had held for decades.

Pleidwyr at the conference were inclined to discount the opinion poll results. As respondents to the You Gov blog continually repeated, converting the constituency vote figures (Lab, 48 pc; Con, 20; Plaid, 19; LD, 7) into which seats are won and lost depends on “a uniform swing”.

Gareth Hughes, ex-HTV, did an exercise for Golwg. I think he worked as much on UK polls as that done by You Gov in Wales. Anyway, he used figures which forced him to ask who would hold Ynys Mon. A universal swing might return Ieuen Wyn Jones to soliciting.

But we all know that Anglesey politics are different. More important than a general swing to ask is when did an incumbent there lose his (or her) seat. The answer is 1951, when Megan Lloyd George was turfed out by Cledwyn Hughes (Lab).

By the way, Gareth said IWJ would hold on.

The former boss of Welsh housing also questioned the result in Caerffili. He forecast that Jeff Cuthbert would hold on for Labour.

Gareth lives in Caerffili and knows the area well. So do I. Cuthbert certainly knows he’s in trouble against Ron Davies, the former Welsh Secretary. His tactic seems to be to concentrate on his strongholds towards the top of the valley.

The best you can say about Jeff is that he is Loyal Labour (very Loyal, except perhaps when Militant comes into the reckoning !).

At the last election, when Ron stood under another label, in opposition to both Labour and Plaid, some local Tories pondered backing him as their own candidate had not a hope. Now he’s standing for Plaid, is a prominent member of the council, and his 20007 vote plus Plaid’s at that time would put him in.

Plaid say they are getting a fantastic response on the doorstep. Well, all canvassers say that about their own man.

Yet, I see it as possible. The next question is, how would Carwyn cope with Ron in his cabinet ? Checking on his defences, I am sure.

Did the Mad Dog once fancy the taste of Welsh lamb ?

Welsh Politics 2 Responses »

Mar 262011

By CLIVE BETTS at the Plaid conference in Cardiff

NOW THAT Muammar Gaddafi’s in the news, with what’s left of the area he controls around Tripoli reportedly running a bit short of food due to United Nation bombing raids, one wonders whether Wales’s sheep farmers could provide a bit of aid.

According to a tale which wandered around some years ago, the Libyan leader – a frenetic supporter of revolutions anywhere in the world, except around Benghazi – was involved in talks with no less than Plaid Cymru to supply his desert land with a hefty supply of sheep-meat.

Gaddafi had already been muddling in UK affairs by shipping arms by trawler to the IRA in the north of Ireland.

No doubt some bright sparks in Plaid wondered whether he could be persuaded to strike a blow at England through providing some help to those fighting for a revolution in that country lying between Ireland and England.

It was said that the deal involved Wales opening up a new route in the country’s flourishing export of young lambs. Currently a lot go to France (where, after a few weeks in a French field, they grow very rapidly into “home-grown French lambs”.

There’s a big market in other middle eastern countries, too, with Australia prominent in supplying Arabia.

The Welsh tale was never confirmed. Initially it was denied (naturally !). But one can imagine that contacts might not have been unlikely. But could the Mad Dog of Tripoli (The Sun’s page one headline) have applied himself sufficiently to importing a couple of thousand mutton-heads every spring. Sending arms to Belfast is much simpler.

The issue comes to mind when the today’s speech by the sharp and alert agriculture minister Elin Jones to the party’s conference in Cardiff was sent to Cambria by the party’s press office protected by a sharp file encryption, demanding a password – which Cambria doesn’t possess – for its opening.

Now, one can well understand that copies of the messages sent by post all those years ago to a tent in the desert in Libya would be tightly encrypted.

But Elin’s speech ?

It’s not even that the files could have mysteriously been shifted around the Plaid headquarters in Cardiff Bay. Elin certainly knows all about farming. But her father was a dairy farmer.

And the sheep episode – if it happened – would have happened when Elin was still at school.

The issue wasn’t raised at the morning press conference when Elin, candidate for Ceredigion, and Mid and West candidate Simon Thomas spoke about election issues.

Perhaps it should have been. It would have raised a laugh. Simon was asked why his list of Plaid success in the coalition government now coming to an end included lots of policies which had originated from the Labour Party.

Well, Plaid had certainly helped make sure they were passed. And no doubt improved some of them a bit …

What about that encrypted letter ? Was it the Mad Dog’s request for prime lamb on the hoof ?

Or was his inquiry about whether Welsh sheep are sufficiently double-jointed to be squeezed into the back seat of a Tripoli taxi. After all, that’s what happens in Cairo. Admittedly, the sheep didn’t seem too happy, but the farmer wasn’t worried.

Elin spoke later in the morning about some of the new policies which Plaid are planning for their manifesto. Like new planning laws to suit rural Wales and its living communities, rather than to salve the village-green prejudices of the Home Counties’ green-wellies brigade who wrote much of the present London-originated legislation now imposed on Wales.

In fact, that encrypted item was probably just the notes of Elin’s speech, about how to improve the access of rural residents (as well as of everyone in towns) to modern computer-based communications.

Nothing about sheep or Gaddafi. What a pity !

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