Expect major changes to the National Assembly when the Tories enter No 10.

George Osborne, shadow chancellor, promised in blunt irreversible sentences to work solidly with the Cardiff body when David Cameron takes over in Downing Street.

St.David's Day parade at the Welsh AssemblyAnd much more. If necessary, Cardiff will get extra  powers.

Which means anti-devolution characters such as David Davies, MP for Monmouth, and his fellow backwoodsmen, Stephen Crabb, Presili, and shadow minister for Wales David Jones can go and get lost.

Not, I am sure, that Mr Jones needs such an invitation – when an AM he was a conscientious loyalist to whatever the party line was, as expressed, usually, by devolutionist Nick Bourne.

Mr Osborne’s comments were expressed in a press conference at the Tories’ Cardiff conference after he had delivered his keynote speech on the economy.

The first issue he dealt with, when speaking to the press, was co-operation between the two cities.  He offered not an iota of hope for those who want to do away with the Assembly.

The institutions both in Cardiff and Edinburgh are here to say. And to work. And work well.  “We now understand devolution, and Wales must make its own decisions,” Mr Osborne told the press. He added that “we want to work” with both Cardiff and Edinburgh.

Plenty of experts have been saying for some time that the biggest problem for Cardiff and Britain is the unsustainable state of the Labour “settlement”.

Mr Osborne said, ” I am open-minded on looking at powers, on whether they should be changed or added to.”

Afterwards, Assembly leader Nick Bourne listed Mr Osborne as one of those favouring development of the Assembly.

The Cardiff hierarchy were pleased with what he said. They were scathing about the anti-devolution clique hidden around David Davies, who did not seem to be present.

Mr Osborne shows why the Tory Party is such a success historically. It accepts change, and works to make things work.

This blog was penned a short time ago. Since then I have been working on getting my systems working once more. Several more blogs will be sent on what happened at the Tory conference.

Each was written immediately after the events it refers to.  Thus, David Jones makes another appearance later. But this blog was not altered to take account of later happenings.

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A division of opinion has surely appeared between Tories in the Assembly and those in the Commons on the most contentious political issue affecting Wales.

Heritage minister Alun Ffred Jones today launched the Legislative Competence Order on the Welsh language into the choppy waters of both the Assembly and Parliament.

It’s in Parliament – and particularly the Commons – that the real trouble will occur. A number of members of the Welsh Affairs Select Committee have already taken to attempting to – and sometimes succeeding in - rewriting LCOs.

In the case of the housing LCO recently, the committee succeeded, through a process of salami slicing, in removing one of the Assembly’s stated aims, to halt permanently in certain geographical areas the sale of council houses. In other words, a democratically-elected body was overruled by an imperial body whose members have no say any longer over this area of policy.

I reckon the same is about to happen with the language LCO.  It is almost impossible to believe that the Tory MPs of the imperial chamber will not attempt to delete part of the LCO they will be considering.

But I’m delighted to report that a deep split seems to be opening on this point between the Tories of Wales and the imperial members in London.

Continue reading »

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Perhaps Welsh Labour’s press office would tell us which of their MPs they expect to lose his seat at the next general election.

The Conservative replacement would then be available to become shadow (or even the real) Secretary of State for Wales.

I asked Assembly business minister Carwyn Jones who that might be. Sensibly, he avoided the question.

In fact, the new shadow or actual Welsh Secretary will almost certainly be Jonathan Evans in Cardiff North. According to ITV’s voluminous Wales Yearbook 2009, the sitting MP has already decided to retire – Julie Morgan is Rhodri’s wife, so a retirement would be no surprise. But Wales on Sunday jubilantly crowed that no announcement had been made; in other words, the Yearbook had made a presumption.

The issue arises because of a hair-brained press release from Welsh Labour in Transport House under the name of Chris Ruane, Vale of Clwyd MP, alleging a “credibility crunch” for Tory leader David Cameron, in his failure to appoint one of his three Welsh MPs to his shadow cabinet this month.

Continue reading »

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To some, Tory AM Darren Millar is assuredly a right-winger – mainly because of his links to Christian groups. You know, a sort of Welsh version of an an American Christian republican.

Leaving that point entirely aside, what about the views of the North member on  devolution ?

His linking with Preseli AM Paul Davies in the row over a replacement chairman to South East AM William Graham for the Tory Assembly group, however, put a different light on such thoughts.

Mr Davies is definitely One Nation – a Tory grouping which still encompasses some members of the party despite the demise of Edward Heath.

Indeed, Mr Millar has been described by a trusted informant as a “federalist ” – something akin to David Melding, the South Central AM and party policy director, as well as bete noire to right-wingers.

Asked about his “federalism”, Mr Millar yesterday demurred.  But he agreed that he “did not like” the devolved assemblies within the UK all working to different rules – Scotland has the greatest powers, followed by Stormont, with Wales some way behind, followed by London (which isn’t a country, in any case).

Really, Mr Millar’s stance probably cannot be differentiated from federalism – but that is one of the words that a rising Tory can never associate himself with.

The Northern member points out, additionally, that devolution should not halt at Cardiff Bay. He claims – and there is evidence to back up his argument – that Cardiff is indeed more centralist than London.

Mr Millar points to the “guidance” that is sent by the respective governments to local authorities. Cardiff is significantly more prescriptive and demanding than is Whitehall, he says. Planning, he points to, as a clear argument.

It is all a reflection of the Labour pressure to force conformity, and to ensure there is only one centre of leadership, and that from floor five in Ty Hywel.

One obvious example is the way the Wales Tourist Board has been totally subsumed within the Assembly’s civil service. And the other is the way health minister Edwina Hart is gathering every iota of power to herself.

As Tory health spokesman Jonathan Morgan remarked at the Tories’ North policy forum conference in Llandudno, Mrs Hart had embarked on a “very dangerous exercise”.

She had “gone from one extreme to the other – from 22 Local Health Boards to one state-controlled governing body, bordering on old-Soviet style command and control”.

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Those with long memories will quickly recognise Den Dover, the Tory MEP expelled from both party and group for directing no less than £500,000 in the wrong direction (ie, family-wards), as an old acquaintance.

When the Conservative Party was a term of abuse in Wales – in days when miners still existed, and the far-Left still thought it was going somewhere rather than nowhere – Mr Dover made an acquaintance with Wales.

He was no more than another Englishman sent to Wales to learn his political trade. I doubt he ever came back after the election. Indeed, a carpet-bagger once, a carpet-bagger always. Eventually he won a Parliamentary seat in Lancashire, where he was known for his anti-European ramblings.

When the tide swung against the Tories, he swiftly switched to become a Tory MEP for the same region, despite his true beliefs. Yet his family home has always remained in Hertfordshire, despite claiming he lived in Euxton, near Chorley, Lancs. Perhaps he was mixing Chorley, Lancs with Chorleywood, Herts…

Anyway, the family cash went to Hertfordshire.

In October 1974, he was his party’s Parliamentary candidate in Caerffili. His catchline was moderately memorable – “Roll over with Dover”, if I remember correctly. His vote, however, was far from memorable – he managed only 11.5pc, up against Plaid’s Phil Williams, who before long came within a ace of capturing the seat, also setting the foundations for his party’s current control of the county borough. Continue reading »

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It’s not the first time he’s said it, but Tory leader Nick Bourne’s thoughts on the constitutional clash developing between the Assembly and Westminster are becoming more apposite by the day.

Mr Bourne is blunt about the current clash over the housing Legislative Competence Order.

With shadow Wales Secretary Cheryl Gillan sitting in on today’s Assembly press briefing, his words will certainly this time resonate London-wards..

Briefly, Wales would be allowed to halt council house sales only temporarily in restricted areas, and the country would be barred – at any time in the future – scrapping sales for everyone everywhere. If Wales should want to do that, the Assembly would have to issue another LCO !

When Mr Bourne made his “untenable” remark, Mrs Gillan made no comment. Afterwards, Mr Bourne enlarged – a referendum on full powers is his solution to the constitutional mess created by Welsh Labour MPs scared about losing their seats – the late Harri Webb had some neat poems about that particular group of MPs…

That is his view, but more important is the view of the entire party – they will have to come to a common view so they can fight the next Westminster general election.

Where is the report on this being prepared by former Conwy MP and Welsh Office Minister Lord Wyn Roberts ?

It will be out “soon”, was Mr Bourne’s response.  Why the delay ? Current world economic difficulties (which presumably means that Mr Cameron and pals have other things on their minds); the need to get “everyone” together; and the need for translation of a large document.

Asked whether David Jones, MP for Clwyd West, would be happy with its contents, Mr Bourne avoided replying. Or, maybe, he grimaced.

Mrs Gillan’s contribution to the issue was to urge “talks” between the two sides. She added, “When there is a dispute between Westminster and Cardiff Bay, it is Wales which loses out.”

As I have written before, I have a feeling that the Tories are about to clench their teeth and take Wales forward, further and faster, than Labour could ever. And Welsh Labour MPs’ attempts to hobble devolution may explode in their faces.

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The rehabilitation of Alun Cairns is overdue.

Ever since being caught out making a silly comment on a BBC programme almost designed to produce such comments, the question has been for how much longer must he suffer.

The key to his return to making a full contribution to political life lies with Tory leader David Cameron.

It was Mr Cameron who suspended the South West AM from his post as prospective candidate for Vale of Glamorgan. Mr Cairns’s comments about Italians being “greasy wops” were not really offensive, merely not the sort of thing which an aspiring politician should say. The Tories’ reaction can be counted as political correctness going too far.

One of Mr Cairns’s non-Tory enemies in the Assembly guesses that Mr Cairns will stay suspended until just before the election, at which point Mr Cameron would parachute in a woman. Not that such a person would have any idea of what’s going to happen.

Mr Cairns can be seen to be still very worried about the situation. His comment was obviously so out of character; I’d blame it entirely on the radio programme. It ill befits some BBC journalists to be holier than everyone else on an issue such as this.

Mr Cairns can see every reason why he should be reinstated (he would, wouldn’t he !). Vale of Glam is a marginal seat although often previously held by his party. A united party with a strong campaign is necessary to win it; Mr Cairns himself retains the constituency’s support; I myself would add that parachuting anyone else in, particular from over the border, would be solidly supported by MP John Smith (! as it would save him the seat), but by hardly anyone else in Wales.

Mr Cairns readily admits Mr Cameron has other things on his mind at the moment.

Probably the best clue to how Mr C will move comes from two journalists who have interviewed him recently.

Dave Cornock reports Mr Cameron’s words on the subject in his blog : “He works extremely hard. He cares passionately about the Vale of Glamorgan. He said something he shouldn’t have. He made a mistake, he is very apologetic about that. I hope we can settle this soon.”

Much the same was said to Nick Speed, of HTV.

So it seems that the Tories’ errant terrier will be back on board soon.  Then it’ll be up to Assembly leader Nick Bourne as to whether he gets back his spokesman’s job on education (unfortunately, Andrew Davies is doing a truly excellent job there, indicating the strength in depth that the Tory group possesses); and his chairmanship of the finance committee (newcomer Angela Burns, Carmarthen West, is currently in place).

One wonders whether Mr Cairns might have reached Westminster before he gets the chance again to second-guess Jane Hutt.

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When the Western Mail runs a story quoting a “senior Welsh Tory” questioning whether party centrist Nick Bourne should “stay on as leader”, one must wonder how close that individual is to the self-styled True Wales group led by a descendant of Owain Glyndwr.

The Mail reporter with a direct line to a link to that long-ago slaughterer of English colonists is Martin Shipton, the paper’s chief reporter. The man in question is no less than David Davies, MP and previous AM for Monmouth.

Reporters are always coy about naming people who have given them information which turns up in the paper without attribution.  With exceptionally good reason.

The journalist’s job is to wheedle into the public domain accurate information about what is going on, in particular behind the scenes and in what were once smoke-filled rooms.

It should be no secret that Mr Shipton has long had links with the David Davies’s family of Newport, and has been more willing to run their right-wing diatribes against the Assembly than many other journalists.

In so doing, Mr Shipton provides a public service.  The problem, though, is to judge the weight which the Davies-family comments carry within the party in general.

The answer is – not much. A small coterie exists of Newport-based right-wingers; but their weight outside that city seems to be very light.

When the Tories brought out their 39-page dossier Rhodri Morgan – Leadership without Purpose journalists immediately recognised its main author as being Richard Hazelwood, for South Wales Echo political correspondent – he quit the job to become Tory press officer in the Assembly just before his paper closed its office in the Assembly, just as the Western Mail closed its own office – and his press office.

Mr Hazelwood is a wizard at filing significant press releases, etc on his computer – as well, apparently, in paper, to prevent loss. The dossier’s 13,400 words were the sort of political criticism of a opposing leader which was to be expected.

His section on “Rhodri-isms” was lovely. “Denial is more than a river in Egypt,” Mr Morgan told Nick Bourne in accusing him of forgetting the history of the Tory Party in government.

And he said that Alun Cairns, in his review of the Welsh economy, “looks like a Victorian undertaker looking forward to winter”.

I have heard many others as good.

Mr Bourne ran into trouble over the 230 words about Rhodri as a “dedicated follower of fashion”. The First Minister sometimes turns up (although not in the Senedd) in casual sports sweater – but critics should take care. One of the Plaid ministers has turned up for party press conferences in attire just as casual.

This turned largely into a BBC story. Modryb from Llandaff seems intent on bringing down at least one minister – they already possess the scalp of Alun Cairns, the Tory shadow education spokesman, after getting him, in a light-hearted radio programme, to make just the sort of rapidly-delivered light-hearted remark which the programme exists for, about Italians (and which, according to the Western Mail at the time, most Welsh Italians just brushed aside). Continue reading »

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