SOME LIB DEMS are really getting their knickers in a twist over politics in Ceredigion and the value and dangers of immigration, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Currently, some of them are accusing Plaid – and specifically the county’s retired AM and MP Cynog Dafis – of something like BNP-style racism for his comments about why Plaid is finding it hard to gain the county’s seat at Westminster.

Mr Dafis blamed demographic change in the county, “where up to half the inhabitants are either people who have moved here themselves from England or are the children of people who have done so”.

Most of the responders on Lib Dem websites clearly where rather ignorant about the county. They didn’t know that the Labour planning minister in Cardiff had intervened with the Ceredigion council planning department about its policies which involved the building of far more new homes than local needs required.

The Lib Dems are getting their knickers in a twist by complaining about Mr Dafis’s comment : they themselves have benefited in the past – I would argue -  from precisely the same sort of factors – native Welshmen, and immigrant and monoglot Englishmen.

It was one of the Ceredigion Libdemmers who alerted me to the issue in a roundabout way. Greg Foster, from the university Lib Dem branch, responded to one of my blogs which claimed that the Conservatives had never held a seat in Ceredigion.

The Tories held in the seat in 1874, he wrote.

So I decided on a bit of investigation.

Indeed, they did. Thomas Edward Lloyd managed to unseat Evan Matthew Richards for the county seat. In those days, there was a boroughs seat for Ceredigion as well. The Liberals got back at the following election.

Both of the candidates at that county election were pretty obviously Welshmen, and Welsh-speakers as well.

Since that time, the county has been more or less a Lib stronghold.

But before then, one of the seats (that for the county, ie the rural areas) had usually been held by a Tory – although the boroughs seat was almost inevitably Liberal. Presumably, county landowners, versus town businessmen and professionals.

And who were the county landowners ? How many of them were native Welsh; how many were English ?

In those days, it could be argued, the Welsh didn’t really exist. Everyone of importance was, of course, English …

In those days, the franchise was pretty restricted, but the long list of MPs sitting for the county seat were almost invariably Conservatives.

One of the more prominent was the Earl of Lisburne. Sounds to me like a native-born Welsh-speaker. Sounds more to me like an Englishman who had stolen some Irish land – which helps to explain the eventual existence of the IRA – and later who started lording it over another country.

How many of the electors for the county seat – rather than for the borough constituency – were similar English immigrants ?

Perhaps the Ceredigion Liberals would like to tell us.

Perhaps it was only when those immigrant landowners and their pals were swamped by the advance of what became eventually mass suffrage that Ceredigion could be boasted of as a Liberal county.

Of course, the real issue is that some Liberals betray a lack of understanding of immigration and its effect on a language and on culture.

As Simon Brooks commented in his Freedom Central contribution, the problem centres around not so much immigration, as around “members of this [British] majority who refuse to learn the minority language” [of an area which they move into].

That is, English-speakers who move en masse into Ceredigion.

A contributor to Freedom Central who then talks about “a refugee who doesn’t learn English when they live in London” is probably racist himself. Rather like Republicans in the United States who claim the English language out there is at risk of being swamped by Spanish immigrants.

Which immigrant living in London doesn’t learn English ? Presumably only the recent arrivals, or the old, or those who intend to return.

Anyone who can believe about arrivals ignoring English is clearly reading the Daily Express too much and obviously knows nothing about immigration, immigrants’ home languages, and the English language.

How is the German colony in Dakota developing ? How has their German digressed from the German of the mother-land ?  More to the point – do any of them still speak any German ?

The problems caused by monoglot English-speaking immigrants into Ceredigion is an entirely different issue.

Mind you, there’s an additional issue which may tell us why the Lib Dems are ensconcing themselves in Ceredigion. Cynog Dafis complained about the Lib Dem MP’s espousal of pavement politics.

Yet it’s pavement politics which twice came close (well, moderately) to ousting the Libs from “their own county”.

The party came up against an activist Tory, by the name of Harford, a Bristol “banker”, who lived at Falcondale on the outskirts of Lampeter.

One of his pet campaigns involved bringing a railway to Lampeter.  Being a Tory, he was dead against using government money of any sort to pay for the project.

Eventually, his campaign was triumphant and a railway arrived.

But lots of public capital was involved. Particularly from the county’s local authorities.

Presumably in order to win he had to get Liberal help. And to do that, he had to “do a Cameron”.

Eventually, Harford chaired the railway company. Whether he eventually learned any Welsh, I know not.

He probably spoke only English, but he made a neat job of eating some of those English words!

 

THE LIBERAL Democrats in Cardiff seem quite happy with the coalition their party has formed with the Tories in London, even the left-wingers among them, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

One of the key figures here is Peter Black, South West.

He has been a key adviser to Kirsty Williams, his party’s new Welsh leader.

One of the party’s Welsh urban leaders, he has spent his life-time proving to the working class areas of Swansea that they have been sold out by the Labour Party.

So, you’d expect him to be spitting blood over the Tory link.

I admit I haven’t spoke to him: our paths crossed, but we were unable to speak. But I did have a word about Welsh Lib Dems and their attitude to the coalition with to a fellow elected-member from Swansea.

Now, I know Peter will laugh deeply and crack some wicked joke when he hears it was Andrew Davies (Labour, Swansea West) I spoke to. Probably with justice.

But Andrew’s comment is worth repeating, and perhaps sums up how a week is a long time in politics.

Andrew  asked whether I had heard what Peter Black had said the previous week in his comment on the coalition. I hadn’t, in fact.

Andrew said, “You’ve heard of the Vicar of Bray. Well, I’m considering naming Peter the Curate of Cant.”

In other words, the Liberal Democratic Party is hardly in immediate danger of breaking up …

Some – if not all – of them have learned an enormous amount since they wrecked the almost-signed agreement to replace the Labour administration in Cardiff with one headed by Ieuan Wyn Jones, of Plaid, and embracing also the Assembly Tories and Liberal Democrats.

And, by the way, don’t necessarily credit the witty Curate of Cant to the authorship of Mr Davies. Andrew is an old political professional, with a good and very dry sense of humour; he’s also got much better hearing than me, and no doubt heard the jibe somewhere within the party hierarchy about someone else …

 

TRUST THE press to do their best to unsettle a politician.  Jenny Randerson is to retire from the Assembly at the next election when she will be 62, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

What chance does the party have of holding the seat now that a coalition deal has been signed in London between the Lib Dems and the Tories?

Especially as Mrs Randerson’s seat of Cardiff Central is one that tilts towards Labour, although once upon a time it was held by the Tories. Labour’s Jon Owen Jones was the previous Westminster incumbent before Jenny Willott became Randerson’s political companion.

Party leader Kirsty Williams wasn’t worried about the prospect, when questioned at the weekly press briefing.

She willingly praised Mrs Randerson – who had been a close contender with her for  the post of Welsh party leader – for the tremendous work she had done to help make the city of Cardiff one of the party’s bright lights in Britain.

Kirsty felt she had no worries for the future politically in the constituency.

 

THE FUTURE of Montgomery constituency is one that greatly concerns Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

But Ms Williams’s hopes of gaining it back at the next poll – or next but one, supposing we see a repeat Westminster election within a short span, which now seems unlikely – seem unrealistic.

The loss of his seat seems to have been as much a surprise to the controversial sky-watcher Lembit Opik as well as to the winner, ex-AM Glyn Davies.

The holding-party, the Lib Dems, seem to have harboured no inkling that the worst was about to befall them.

Similarly the Tories failed to play up beforehand – although they mentioned it – the possibility of winning the seat.

However Glyn Davies, their candidate, seems a bit disingenuous to claim – as he seems to have done – that he had no victory speech prepared, which perhaps gives the idea that winning was somehow not on the realistic horizon.

The truth, of course, is that those with exceedingly long memories will recall that the constituency was retained for the Liberals for so long – probably for decades – purely because an official deal being reached by the constituency committees of each party.

The Conservatives would stand down and tell their supporters to vote for the Liberal. Shades indeed of what Nick Clegg finally delivered for what remains of the United Kingdom.

Precisely what the Liberal used to offer the Tories for that old agreement to stand down never got as far as the public prints.

But the understanding by both parties was that a large pool of similarly-minded voters – mainly, I suppose, small hill-farmers and their associates – was involved.

While makes Ms Williams’s expectation that the seat will return to the fold at the next election somewhat difficult to understand.

The party leader points to the significance of a clash between two big “personalities”. She adds she is convinced that Montgomery “is a Lib Dem seat at heart”.

She reminds us that the seat fell once before to the Tories – at the 1979 Thatcher landslide – but that it swiftly returned.

Ms Williams had to be told by the press that that earlier Tory was an entirely different kettle of fish from Mr Davies.

This week’s winner is a solid Montgomeryshire farmer – even though he some strange stories attached to his name, such as that which features himself driving a lorry while wearing no trousers. As Mr Davies tells the story against himself, you can be pretty sure that the tale doesn’t also feature anything like any of Mr Lembit’s numerous girlfriends.

No hint of a bra-strap, possibly, lying over the next seat … That would be hardly Glyn.

In contrast, the “kettle of fish” who previously held the seat for the Cons seemed a really fishy character, a bit smelly and a real “con-man” rather than a Con.

The stretch of time over which Delwyn Williams held the seat resulted in a steady stream of lurid headlines – plus several stories which were run by broadcasters but reckoned too stupid ever to make the printed page – which made his downfall entirely expected, as well as unlamented.

It was to that sort of background that the seat “went home” to the Lib Dems, to Alex Carlile.

It is true that the new winner Glyn Davies occasionally manages to contradict himself politically, but the thoughts he commits to his lengthy blog mark him out as a good-class thinker, with his heart deeply involved in the rural areas.

Much as I dislike saying it, I think Kirsty is going to be disappointed in her expectation that Montgomery will “come back to the fold”.

 

EVERYONE IS talking nowadays about coalitions, and Welsh Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams seems to reckons she has learnt more about creating them than most politicians, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

“I have no intention of getting into the same situation as last time,” said Ms Williams as she discussed how this novelty- except in Wales, Scotland and, of course, the once-British Ireland – of our governmental system  should be dealt with.

The issue has arisen, of course, because of political readings which say Westminster will produce a hung Parliament after this summer’s election.

“Last time” for Kirsty was immediately following the last Assembly poll, when the Welsh Lib Dems careered off in the opposite direction to that favoured by the party’s then-leader, Mike German.

New arrangements will have to be adopted for the future, Ms Williams is saying now. After all, coalitions will almost certainly be the norm in Welsh politics for quite some time – until some other party than Labour achieve the dominance that Labour is currently losing.

Ms Williams seems to be thinking of upgrading the role of both the party leader – currently, of course, herself – and of the party group.

Perhaps, it was mused to her at her party’s weekly press briefing, the next party conference in the autumn is the time to achieve that. Presumably, by changing the constitution.

But the leader’s comment was not nearly so clear-cut. She spoke, instead, of a “better understanding” between the leader and the party’s grassroots.

But what in reality does that mean ? An understanding which ends in another misunderstanding, perhaps ?

Kirsty ended up – “The party will get better at dealing with the situation,” she commented. Actually, she tried to make that seem a blunt statement with which no-one can disagree.

Which, unfortunately, it wasn’t.

 

HOW ABOUT  a bit of sympathy for Mick Bates, the Lib Dem AM for Montgomery, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Mick unfortunately has a slight liking on occasion for a pint – or more. Indeed, the incident in Cardiff earlier this year may not be the first time he has descended a pub or restaurant stairs in that city rather more rapidly than intended.

Were he a sot, I would have no time for him. But I would like to echo a recently-former Lib Dem councillor who blogged that Mick was “a sweet daft, lovable character”.

A bit daft, certainly. Perhaps he should consider taking up barley farming rather than the sheep who presumably provide most of his income.

Mick was back in the Assembly yesterday, taking part in a morning committee’s hearing.

It looks indeed as if the affair is about to disappear into journalists’ memories (which, I warn you, can be quite long !). In view of his “unreserved apology” if he had abused the ambulance-man who was called to help him,  I would strongly expect the police, the hospital trust and the ambulanceman’s union to have all concluded that there is absolutely no case for taking further action.

Should the case ever reach court, the beak would rapidly throw it out and ask who was trying to waste his time charging a person who honestly couldn’t remember, and was horrified at what he was said to have done.

I am writing about it because Mick’s party leader Kirsty Williams told us during her weekly briefing that Mick had had no contact from anyone official after the incident, and neither had she. Not the plod or the hospital or anyone else.

So that’s the end of the matter, Cambria innocently asked. No way, it would seem, was the answer. The Lib Dems are of course willing to co-operate with any investigation.

Only too willing, was the impression I got.

I can understand why a senior politician in today’s rather odd world had to clamp down on any fellow politician’s misbehaviour. After all that we have heard about duck islands and expenses (for a Tory MP), and second-class rail travel being considered for parliamentarians, politicians are clearly always wrong. As well as guilty of everything …

My minimal experience of rural folk is that things are a bit different out in the country.

Lembit Opik is the other representative for Montgomery. When I asked him whether his affair with a Cheeky Girl might harm him electorally, his retort was brief. Farmers were asking after the other Cheeky Girl. Could he have her sent down to Newtown ?

And when a singing trio of farmers entertained a Lib Dem conference in the county, one of their songs  concentrated on a heifer and a bull, and what one might do to the other.  I recall the horror on the face of Peter Black, AM for South West.

Come on boys, lighten up. Mick has fulsomely apologised.

The incident might not be good enough for an election address in Rhiwbina (Cardiff North), but I’m sure Nick would be on his way to a bumper majority next time round in Montgomery. A pity he’s retiring.

 

THE LIB Dems seem terrified that the expected referendum on extra powers for the Assembly will be lost unless a unified Yes campaign is able to concentrate fully on that issue and not be distracted by an election, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

The party has indeed been concerned for some time that the Labour Party’s unwillingness to commence organising at the earlier time possible – ie, some time ago – an all-party Yes campaign will lead to a referendum defeat.

That was the line continually spun by the Welsh LD party’s previous leader, Mike German.

Now we have a variation on that tune. This time it comes from Peter Black, the party’s AM for South West – and voice for present leader Kirsty Williams in the land of hard-spun policy.

Mr Black was playing hard-ball at his party’s weekly press briefing. If the coalition parties, Labour and Plaid, did not give assurances that the dates of the referendum and the 2011 election were not separated, the LDs would refused to vote for the trigger-motion that would enable the referendum to go ahead.

Few journalists believed that the LDs would, in fact, stick to their guns when the time for next week’s vote arrives. The party are just too pro-devolution.

It’s true that it seems likely that the LDs would be willing to accept a weaker form of promise on this issue than would the Tories – who are taking a very similar line.

Speaking to the press, Mr Black was very convincing on why the referendum had to be split from the election. Basically, an election is the time when parties maximise their differences with every other party.

It’s hardly the sort of time when your campaigners would either want to – or be capable of – start talking about how much they agree with aspects of another party’s policies,

But then another issue has perhaps to be brought into the reckoning.  This is the issue of who in fact wrecked the planned rainbow coalition alliance between Plaid, the Conservatives and the Lib Dems immediately after the last Welsh general election in 2007.

The Western Mail reported that former Plaid parliamentary candidate Sian Caiach, of Llanelli, stated in her letter resigning from the party that one of the reasons she was quitting was because the party had turned their back on the rainbow alliance.

The party had decided to link with Labour because, she claimed, senior figures in Plaid were unwilling to see Ieuan Wyn Jones become First Minister.

Now, that’s a very, very interesting story. And there could well be a lot of truth in it.

Except for the fact that the rainbow deal collapsed because the Lib Dems walked out – to the not-inconsiderable fury of the party’s two former ministers in the coalition they had once run with Labour – Mike German and Jenny Randerson.

After the Lib Dems had done the dirty, a deal with Labour was all that was left for Plaid to enter into.  For some reason the Western Mail didn’t tell us that.

Perhaps that was because they couldn’t remember. Or the reporter couldn’t find the file of the story in the paper’s library. Or because the paper didn’t even have an Assembly reporter at the time.

But why did the Lib Dems walk out ?

Because of a demonstration outside a meeting of the Lib Dem’s Welsh executive being held in Llandrindod.

The demo was in opposition to the planned rainbow coalition.

I don’t think we ever discovered the precise reason. But it was said at the time that the basic reason behind it was opposition by some prominent Brecon and Radnor Lib Dems to any close link with the Tories.

The reason for that was purely local constituency concerns about the contest with the Tories at subsequent elections. In other words, local concerns killed national policy.

The local Lib Dem AM is of course Kirsty Williams. She has indignantly denied allegations from inside her party that she was a driving force in that demo.

In any case, she is now facing her first big national test.

Which may be why she – in the form of Peter Black – is threatening to act so strongly against both the election and the referendum being on the same day.

 

I REALLY must question the strategy being used by the Liberal Democrats in their weekly press briefing, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Whether she likes it or not, it’s time for party leader Kirsty Williams to give way on occasion to the person she beat in the contest for the leadership, Jenny Randerson.

This week was one of those occasions – and not perhaps the first. Mrs Randerson had a superb point to make about the costliness of the North-South air link, which would have made headlines.

While all that Mrs Williams could present was a very vague press release which I’m sure no-one was really interested in. And, to make matters worse, the AM for Brecon and Radnor regaled us with a mother-in-law joke which was really not in the best marital taste.

In other words, as has been said before, Kirsty Williams isn’t starting well in her new post as leader of the Welsh Lib Dems.

Indeed, some wonder whether Mrs Williams is slowly going nuts.

She will not like the comment, but the press gallery is slowly getting the impression that she is a very poor replacement for Mike German as leader of the Lib Dem group.

This week’s press release was a demand that new First Minister Carwyn Jones “matches rhetoric with action” over his commitments to education.

Mrs Williams demanded that he reverse the higher education spending cuts which his government had implemented last autumn. She wanted a supplementary budget passed.

Now, precious few politicians are going to do an about-turn that quickly, particularly when it so obviously a financial issue.

So, that story wasn’t much of a runner.

Then Kirsty had some good points about the failure of child-poverty to be reduced in Wales in accord with the Assembly’s written policies.

Her solution ? Carwyn should have a chat with Gordon in London about changes to taxes and benefits.

Somehow, I don’t think that would be worth it.

But what makes me think that Kirsty is going nuts is what passed for her mother-in-law joke. She asked the press gallery to guess what he mother-in-law had given her for Christmas.

Some of them even tried. But Kirsty put them out of their agony.

The present was a roll of cling-film and a cling-film dispenser. What for ? So that Kirsty could better prepare her sandwiches for her daily trip down to Cardiff Bay.

If I were Kirsty’s mother-in-law I would take hold of that cling-film and slowly wrap it around Kirsty’s neck, before pulling it tight.  Not too tight, mind you; we don’t want a by-election.

Not for the first time, the following days revealed that other Lib Dems AMs had material prepared which more than justified an airing at the Lib Dem briefing.

Mrs Randerson, the heavy-weight AM for Cardiff Central, demanded of Carwyn Jones, “The continued subsidy of air-travel by the Welsh Government shows just how out of touch they are with the economic and environmental reality Wales faces. In year one, Welsh taxpayers subsidised each plane passenger using the service by £84, whilst the subsidy for rail travel between North and South Wales was just £6.30 per passenger.

“It cannot be right that Welsh taxpayers continue to subsidise costly and heavily polluting air-travel, while our railways and public transport remains desperately underfunded. The Welsh Liberal Democrats would switch the air-link subsidy to be spent on improving the vital and more heavily used North-South train service.”

Under the regulations which govern FM questions, I believe that Mr Jones was given notice that he was going to be quizzed on the Valley link.

The link was proving much more popular than expected. It had “exeeded expectations”.

But, due to the way the Assembly is now run, that is all we got. The old-style transport committee could have demanded – and would indeed have received, without any need to demand – full reports from civil servants on what was happening, on the rules, and so on.

But now, next to nothing.

Quite clearly, Mrs Randerson had a far better tale to tell than had Mrs Williams. For once, Kirsty should have given way.

Cambria Books

New publication.
New translation of the Physicians of Myddfai by Terry Breverton

Cambria Books

New publication. Entertaining guide to the US Elections by Denis Campbell.
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