Ceredigion prepares a nasty blow for Plaid

Expect the Liberal Democrats to hold Ceredigion, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

That is what I am hearing from the corridors of the National Assembly.

Lib Dems (of course), Tories and even Plaid expect Mark Williams to hold the seat against the attack by Penri James..

The Plaid person I spoke to did not phrase it in quite that way. “Confident of winning” were the words. But pressed about how confident, and the dread proviso creeps in …

“Until the prime ministerial debates …”

In other words, the fair showing that Nick Clegg received boosted the Lib Dems so much in Ceredigion that it sunk Plaid’s chances.

Representatives of the two other parties had no such doubts.

A number of factors seem important. Mr Williams, although he is a non-Welsh speaking outsider, is held in high regard for his strong work-rate for the constituency. In any case, he comes from Breconshire, which is not that far distant.

Then, there are the problems that his challenger has had to face. Like losing his Bow Street council seat. A safe seat for Plaid, it was considered. And it wasn’t as if Ceredigion is one of those mid-Wales authorities where most members are Independents and where a political label is a liability.

Plaid has a strong political group in the council chamber in Aberaeron, and the party had big hopes of taking control. But not when the party starts losing its key figures.

Plaid almost possess a tradition of losing in Ceredigion. At one time the party’s central director of elections lost her seat in the county (although I think that was only on a parish council). In other words, Ceredigion does not seem to be the place to go if you want to learn how to win.

Now, the authority is regarded as under “no overall control”, but I’m sure the Lib Dems would like to pretend it they would provide the leadership.  Councillors have clearly gravitated together to ensure that anyone but Plaid runs Penmorfa (the county hall.

It makes you wonder that there might by something wrong with some of the lesser Nationalist lights in the constituency.

The constituency features a struggle between the Welsh and English languages, and the Welsh front-men aren’t always the most attractive vote-getters – although how much, if at all, that particular factor applies to Penry, I don’t know.

Mind you, as one of my informants reminded me, Cardies can be quite unusual folks. Not everything goes the Lib Dems’ way all the time. Soon after Penri lost his own seat, a by-election was called in a nearby ward.

A Lib Dem stronghold it was. Then. But not after the election…