Clive Betts writes after visiting the Plaid Cymru spring conference.

THERE SEEMED a quiet expectation in the Plaid spring conference at Cardiff that the May election will be followed by a continuation of business-as-usual in Cardiff Bay.

First Minister Carwyn Jones is – of course – aiming to win a clear overall majority. Labour has never achieved such a victory, and many say the additional-member voting system used in Wales was constructed – by Labour – to ensure that a coalition government would be the usual outcome of an election.

The system was certainly constructed to ensure that a Plaid Cymru majority would never come about. We’ve had that from former First Minister Rhodri Morgan no less; although the party was no doubt thinking about the balance of political forces that exist in the present world of Wales that exists at the moment.

For the sake of his troops’ enthusiasm, Carwyn is compelled to talk up the idea of gaining an overall victory. And no doubt to keep Peter Hain, the Neath MP, quiet for a moment or two.

You can be pretty sure that May 5 will see a swing towards Labour. They are of course the chief opponents of an unpopular coalition in Westminster. And you can also bet that Welsh Tory leader Nick Bourne will be mourning the loss of several of his seats as the electorate take revenge for the cuts London is being forced to impose.

Although Plaid are also opponents of the London government, I heard no-one trumpeting that the Nationalists would be making much of an advance on that basis.

In other words, it’s going to be a difficult election. The recent You Gov/ITV Wales opinion poll forecast that Labour’s vote will rise 16pc on the 2007 result, and Plaid will drop 2pc.

This would give Labour either 32 or 33 of the Assembly’s 60 seats, compared with 26 today. A majority. But a big enough one ?

Labour’s already tried going-it-alone twice. First, under Alun Michael when the party won only 28 seats. When Rhodri Morgan took over, it did not take him too long to bring some sense to the Assembly by doing a deal with the Liberal Democrats.

In 2003, the party won precisely 30 seats, and they governed alone for that entire Assembly, despite both John Marek (Wrexham) and Peter Law (Blaenau Gwent) losing their designations as official Labour.

It proved a very tough time for the party, which made the current coalition with Plaid Cymru in 2007 an obvious option for Carwyn.

Whatever the MP for Neath may believe, the One Wales Coalition has proved quite a success, both in policies and personalities.

I spoke to a Plaid minister who felt that the sort of overall majority which Carwyn might win would be insufficient to justify the First Minister trying to go it alone … whatever Labour MPs might think.

Why would Carwyn be willing to throw sand in the eyes of Labour MPs ?

The fear of being held to ransom by a couple of his backbenchers (although no names were mentioned). The problem of illness among his members (Labour has suffered during the current Assembly from the long-term absence due to illness of Karen Sinclair (Clwyd South).

And then there’s the positive stability resulting from a continuation of the present coalition. Plaid accepts that if Labour gains seats, their own party may have to take a step backwards. Perhaps Plaid would lose a minister or deputy minister (again, no names were mentioned, or suggested !).

Of course, it is a bit of a mug’s game trying to image what an opinion poll will really mean when the election arrives. Particularly in Wales.

Not that Wales is a bit odd, but because the answer a pollster is given will almost always refer to a putative Westminster election, whatever the question that had been asked.  Additionally, answers are usually biased towards the big two-party split in British politics.

Which means, when an answer is given, the Lib Dems are either forgotten or downgraded.

Although there has been desultory talk of a possible Lab-LibDem coalition being formed after the next election, the truth is that Kirsty Williams’s party is too small, with only six AMs at present. And probably fewer after the count. Pleidwyr were wondering whether the party would lose its South West list seat; probably they consider Peter Black too annoying a reminder that conscience should play a part in politics.

However, that loss seems unlikely as the party is unable to challenge for any constituency seats in that region; in addition, the list vote reaches a total which is close to the constituency figures (which spectacularly failed to happen in Mid and West). So, South West should be safe, even if students switch to another rparty (or, more likely, don’t reach the polling booth).

Some Pleidwyr were reckoning that Cardiff Central will be lost as Jenny Randerson removes herself to the Lords (or, as Wigley prefers to say, the Second Chamber). The seat is certainly stuffed with students. But their importance can be exaggerated. Last time, the turnout was very low.

Some say, this is a seat which relies on the left-wing Lib Dem tradition (which Jenny occupies – as long as you don’t want to park for nothing at a hospital),

But the Lib Dems success in Cardiff Central has been built over years, and it has relied probably more on beating the Tories in a long string of middle class wards which that party had held for decades.

Pleidwyr at the conference were inclined to discount the opinion poll results. As respondents to the You Gov blog continually repeated, converting the constituency vote figures (Lab, 48 pc; Con, 20; Plaid, 19; LD, 7) into which seats are won and lost depends on “a uniform swing”.

Gareth Hughes, ex-HTV, did an exercise for Golwg. I think he worked as much on UK polls as that done by You Gov in Wales. Anyway, he used figures which forced him to ask who would hold Ynys Mon. A universal swing might return Ieuen Wyn Jones to soliciting.

But we all know that Anglesey politics are different. More important than a general swing to ask is when did an incumbent there lose his (or her) seat. The answer is 1951, when Megan Lloyd George was turfed out by Cledwyn Hughes (Lab).

By the way, Gareth said IWJ would hold on.

The former boss of Welsh housing also questioned the result in Caerffili. He forecast that Jeff Cuthbert would hold on for Labour.

Gareth lives in Caerffili and knows the area well.  So do I. Cuthbert certainly knows he’s in trouble against Ron Davies, the former Welsh Secretary. His tactic seems to be to concentrate on his strongholds towards the top of the valley.

The best you can say about Jeff is that he is Loyal Labour (very Loyal, except perhaps when Militant comes into the reckoning !).

At the last election, when Ron stood under another label, in opposition to both Labour and Plaid, some local Tories pondered backing him as their own candidate had not a hope. Now he’s standing for Plaid, is a prominent member of the council, and his 20007 vote plus Plaid’s at that time would put him in.

Plaid say they are getting a fantastic response on the doorstep. Well, all canvassers say that about their own man.

Yet, I see it as possible. The next question is, how would Carwyn cope with Ron in his cabinet ? Checking on his defences, I am sure.