CAMBRIA POLITICO

Lib Dems s**t rather than glory

Feb 272010

PLENTY OF doubts among the press as the Assembly resumes after its half-term break about Plaids strategy for its Westminster election campaign, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

What a great way to gain votes, by campaigning for a hung parliament, party leader Ieuan Wyn Jones argues. Although some of the press add an exclamation mark, in surprise.

Interestingly, that strategy is the precise opposite of that being followed by Kirsty Williams and the Lib Dems.

KIrsty had to put up with a bit of semi-barracking during her press briefing from journalists who demanded to know with which party her party would link after the election due shortly.

Her line was simple. Our aim is to get as many MPs elected as possible. In Wales, that means to hold the current three, and to add Swansea West and Newport East.

As for a post-election coalition, that issue rests “in the hands of the people” – in other words, in where they put their votes.

Behind that line lies the statement that a crucial issue in deciding which way the Lib Dems should swing is the movement in how the votes are cast. In other words, the numbers of MPs elected for each party could fail to reflect the trend of voters’ intentions; and this the Lib Dems might not go the “obvious” way.

Kirsty then reflected on the problems which followed the last Welsh general election. At that time, careful discussions led to the negotiation of a Plaid – Conservative – Lib Dem coalition.

Until, that is, Lib Dem leaders met in Llandrindod. That conflab was lobbied by a demonstration, with Kirsty and Lembit Opik (MP for Montgomery) dominant, urging that the agreement be thrown out. Which it was.

This was to the absolute fury of the party’s sensible wing, prominent among them Mike German and Jenny Randerson – both, of course, former ministers in a previous coalition, and expecting, with good reason, similar jobs in the next.

Kirsty’s reflection this week on those happenings was most revealing. She said, “We didn’t cover ourselves in glory.” Indeed, indeed, as the Sensible Wing said afterwards.

Ieuan’s position in those Assembly plans was, of course, that he would have become First Minister.

Ieuan’s current argument in favour of a coalition at Westminster (or “hung parliament”, as he would have it) is that his party would avoid a coalition, but use its votes in support of the “best” policies for Wales – in particular, the extension of powers to the Assembly to rectify the current incomprehensible cat’s cradle that Cardiff is saddled with.

Jocelyn Davies a Plaid leadership contender?

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Dec 082009

ONE WOMAN (Elin Jones) has already been spotlighted as a potential new leader for Plaid Cymru, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

And now a second woman hove into view. And more than one member of the press is in agreement on the issue.

“She could be an interim leader,” was the words used in the press gallery. “An interim before whom?” I interjected, to receive no answer.

Deputy minister Jocelyn Davies jointly hosted with her leader Ieuan Wyn Jones the weekly cabinet press briefing.

Mr Jones had the star position, both with his announcement on an £11m boost for business research, and because he can speak with the authority of a party leader.

Ms Davies was there mainly to talk about housing, in particular the new LCO on social housing and the protection of vulnerable people.

But, apart from these two issues, it was extremely instructive to note the relationship between the pair. Ms Davies interjected at an early point to suggest – to general laughter – that Mr Jones should apologise for them arriving late.

Really, the South East AM was just emphasising how they had both kept to time.

At several points, Mr Jones glanced in her direction as if to check on the line that he should take. Once was when he was asked whether the arrival later that day of a new Labour party leader – widely expected at that time to be Carwyn Jones – would make any difference to the membership of the cabinet.

Certainly there would be changes on the Labour side, he replied. But what about on the Plaid side – “I do not think so,” he said.

Well, on this point, perhaps I beg to differ. The new First Minister might well feel that big changes are overdue in a cabinet which is in its main personnel a decade old.

And some Plaid AMs are wondering what sort of changes Carwyn may have up his sleeve, and to what extent they will apply to his coalition partners as to his own party.

Particularly in the boundaries between jobs. And once you start chopping and changing, an entire ministerial department could either disappear or appear.

There will certainly be no change in the numbers of AMs involved – two ministers and one deputy for Plaid. But don’t rule out changes for the responsibilities.

The previous week saw Elin Jones , agriculture minister, rising in the firmament. She was already one of the most highly regarded on the Plaid benches, and her hosting of the previous week’s cabinet briefing sent her star lighting up the sky.

In this wee contest between ladies on the Plaid benches, Elin must count as being far in the lead. In the Welsh-speaking world that is so crucial to success in Plaid, she has the great advantage of appealing to both Gogs and Hwntws.

While poor young (no, she’s not that young !) Jocelyn suffers so much that she is really disqualified because she is not a Welsh-speaker.

Additionally, she is a real, pure Valleys girl. Whether she’s from the Left or Right, I’m not sure. But most Pleidwyr don’t know much about the Valleys, so they’ll automatically assume that her political stance is the one that they can’t stomach within Plaid.

And after naming this pair, there’s the third in the trio of strong, capable Plaid women. Helen Mary Jones is probably the best of them all.

But the Plaid AM tried for a top job once, and things went wrong

Now she’s sitting there on the backbenches, when her true position should be in the Cabinet or heading a department.

But then perhaps she is just too good and has to be kept tied down.

Did Tory racists force Oscar to join Plaid?

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics 2 Responses »

Dec 082009

WE ALL wondered why the entire Tory group turned up for that group’s weekly press briefing – plus Cheryl Gillan, the shadow secretary of state, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Then someone else walked in, and Plaid AM Oscar – formally known as Mohammed Asghar – became their 13^th member.

Unlucky 13 ? No, I was told by one of the original 12, it’s a lucky 13.

Oscar had done his flit only half-an-hour before he was due to attend the Plaid group’s weekly group meeting just down the corridor.

We asked him what Ieuan Wyn Jones, the Plaid leader, had said. “Haven’t told him yet,” was the reply.

Oscar was a bit vague about precisely why he had decided to depart that party. Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams in her briefing which followed directed us to some of Oscar’s recent contributions to plenary debates: he had been effusive in praise for the work being done by Plaid ministers.

But perhaps that was only a cover-up for the action he was then contemplating.

For how long he had been was unclear. Certainly the talks with the Tories had been cloak-and-dagger with only a small group within that party, and did not seem to have continued for long.

One had the feeling that Oscar’s background – he is a chartered accountant dealing with small businesses, lived in a nice house in Newport, and had a strong background in the Pakistan Air Force – would have placed him out of sympathy with some of the more left-wing elements within the Plaid group.

But he steadfastly refused to be drawn on such matters.

The biggest surprise was that he had ever been chosen as Plaid’s second nominee for South East, for he is clearly out of sympathy with any idea of “independence”. He said he a strong believer in the United Kingdom (!), and seemingly in the Royal Family.

Elected under false pretences ? No, he had never used the word “independence” in his election literature. But then does presiding officer Lord Elis-Thomas in Dwyfor Meirionnydd ?

To Oscar the critical political issue is the need for a Parliament, and that is the word that he used for the elections.

Why stand for Plaid ? Oscar had told me several years ago that a vital reason was the approach made to him by now-deputy minister Jocelyn Davies – who stands perhaps on the right (or perhaps centre, certainly not hard-left) of Plaid.

Previously, indeed, Oscar had been a Labour Party member in Newport. Why switch from that party ? Well, Newport Labour contains some racist elements, and Oscar clashed with them at one time. Yesterday he did not remind us this week of that part of his history.

Met along the Assembly corridors, it was Andrew Davies, the Labour minister, who filled in that gap.

During the Tory press briefing, it turned out that some years ago, Oscar had approached the Tories to join that party “but I heard no more”.

I asked him whether he suspected racism among the Tories at that time for the lack of a reply, and whether he believed that the Tory Party had really changed its spots ?

The first part of the question he avoided answering, saying it had happened many years ago. The second was answered by Nick Bourne, and what do you expect his answer was?

It was very clear during the briefing that Oscar’s economic beliefs link up very clearly with Tory beliefs as advertised by party UK leader David Cameron and by Mr Bourne – who is, of course, very strong on the need for a parliament (although he avoids use of that word).

The departure from Plaid was treated as a home-coming.

His political interests, as listed in Dod’s National Assembly for Wales Companion, fit in neatly with the new-style Tory Party – economic development and social exclusion – rather than that of the Thatcherites.

But it could yet be a home-coming which causes a few problems for the Tories – if they win the next London election. For Oscar won a seat in the Assembly as a top-up member for Plaid to compensate that party for their absence of constituency seats in the South East.

When one elected regional member drops out, the next on the list simply takes over the seat (this happened in North during the last Assembly, where Rod Richards was simply replaced by David Jones, without any new election being held).

The third-placed individual on the Plaid list was senior Caerffili councillor Colin Mann, who would have been an excellent addition to the party’s corps of AMs.

The Tories apparently checked very carefully on the Government of Wales Act that Oscar could continue with his seat, despite being part of another party’s list.

No doubt, quite an argument could be had as to whether this should be permitted. As Nick Bourne ruefully commented yesterday, it will no doubt be his own party – when, and there’s no “if” in Mr Bourne’s mind, it wins the next Westminster election – which will have to consider whether to change the Government of Wales Act to deal with the problem.

When Darling’s squeeze is around your throat

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Dec 072009

PLAID ISN’T too happy with the London government attitude to the amount of money which Cardiff gets to run Wales each year, writes Clive Betts from writes the Assembly press gallery.

The Assembly is worse than even a community council; they can raise their own rates while the Assembly has to depend 100 pc on London.

The commission set up by the Assembly to investigate the workings of the Barnett formula – which decides how much goes to each of the devolved administrations – uncovered that Wales is underfunded.

Surprise, surprise !

But the Treasury decided to do nothing about it. Mr Darling’s department argued there was currently no problem.

The lack-of-cash problem is caused by something known as the Barnett Squeeze. This squeeze is caused by the amount of money Cardiff receives rising each year. But each year the increase is less than the previous year.

The Treasury argued that this squeeze happened only when total UK funding is rising each year.

Which isn’t happening at the moment.

But Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones that the squeeze is in fact still happening.

That is because while the amount of money being sent to Wales each year is no longer rising in real terms, it is in cash terms – which means the squeeze is still active.

Mr Jones said, “The Treasury was saying, it will happen in the future [meaning, in the long term]. We are responding by saying, it will happen in the next five years.”

I somehow think that can be better phrased. It’s surely happening now; so what this about five years ?

Mistrust

Welsh Politics 1 Response »

Nov 242009

THE DEPTH of mistrust between the Plaid Cymru side of the coalition and the Labour Party in London was starkly revealed in a sudden explosion earlier today, writes Clive Betts from the press gallery,

The Welsh Labour Party issued a statement at noon on Tuesday from Rhodri Morgan and Peter Hain, Secretary of State for Wales, which was read differently by the two coalition parties.

It is clear that Labour is more cautious on a referendum that Plaid Cymru. Labour fears that a No vote “could set back devolution for several decades”. Of course, some senior figures in Labour have an aim of “setting back devolution for ever”.

Mr Hain has never been one of that group. But he has the unenviable task of trying to keep his party in one piece.

And he must also work within the perameter that most Labour party members give precedence to the London general election, which means that not much will happen until that has been held.

The crucial point raised by Plaid during the Tuesday plenary exchanges is what will happen as far as Assembly decisions are concerned during the January to March period next year, when Plaid hopes that the path will be opened towards the much-needed referendum on extra power s.

And would the referendum they hope to see be held next autumn ?

Mr Morgan said in plenary that was not a matter for him, but for his successor, together with the deputy coalition leader Ieuan Wyn Jones.

Some people say the coalition will break up on this issue. But such people have never been to Ireland, where coalitions are normal.

If we want a touch more information, we will have to listen to Mr Hain tomorrow (Wednesday) , when he is allowed to address the Assembly in plenary.

But, bear in mind, there are two views trying to co-exist within one coalition. The Labour line is that a referendum should not be fought until it is clear it is likely to be won. The Plaid line is that a referendum should be fought as soon as possible.

If it is lost with a Tory government in office, the politics can be engineered so that a second referendum can be tabled which will more easily be won. At least, that is my view.

Of course, with a Tory government in office, the politics can be engineered so that a referendum should quite easily be won.

But, then, Labour doesn’t believe (not officially, anyway) that the Tories will win the next election. Which makes the dynamics of Welsh politics slightly different. Which of course also changes the likelihood of a victory for a Yes campaign.

What do you pay to attract foreign jobs ?

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Oct 142009

TALK OF the Cardiff government undertaking a sea-change in its industrial policy was somewhat overwhelmed by publication of a report on that most sensitive of subjects – the level of expenses paid in governmental sources, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Briefly, International Business Wales, the successor to the apparently-successful Welsh Development Agency, paid out far too much in “exes”, particularly to its overseas officials.

We’ve heard of the hundreds of claims for which no paperwork existed.

Really ?

Join the club.

Just like old-style journalistic expenses. Where the exes made up for pay which was significantly below that received by a teacher.

The same as for MPs. Where exes made up for pay increases that were not given

Except, a senior Assembly press officer, hearing me mouthing such comments, said bluntly, “You obviously haven’t read the report.”

Which is true. I’d only heard what those of my colleagues who have were saying.

In fact, the report goes on far beyond exes. It basically points out that the government’s entire policy of attracting overseas investment though international offices had been a failure.

Which is presumably where Ieuan Wyn Jones’s briefing of the Western Mail for Monday’s edition came from.

He knew that journalists were about to write the following day that large unjustified (ie, no backing paperwork) exes were being paid out to officials for a policy that was then failing to deliver.

Clearly, this was a story that could run and run. And in doing so run into the ground Plaid Cymru’s belief that they were doing a good job running one of the biggest government departments.

Cambria was purposefully excluded from the briefing. Which might not be too surprising as we come out only every two months, which compares poorly with the Daily Post and Western Mail.

But Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams had read the report. And she’s had an official briefing.

Her point when talking to the press was simple. It was obvious that the Welsh Labour-Plaid government is “confused”. While Ieuan Wyn Jones, the economic affairs minister, says one thing, Rhodri Morgan, the first minister and an expert on economics, says the near-opposite.

Ms Williams said, “In a highly complex global market, we cannot afford to send mixed messages to investors.” She sent on, “To announce there will be no more grants for inward investors is reckless in the extreme. There may well be no more grants, or far less.”

She pointed out that the Minister for Economy and Transport had signalled an end to grant incentives for investors and a new focus on skills.

“But last week Government slashed the post-16 education budget by 5%, cut £7m from business start-up funding, and slashed infrastructure budgets,” said Ms Williams.

“And tomorrow Rhodri Morgan will speaks to UK investors and is billed as outlining the incentives on offer in Wales. These conflicting messages will leave potential investors with little confidence that Welsh Government has a clear strategy. When confidence is low, clarity is vital.”

Now this is only Kirsty’s view of the situation. But no-one has told Cambria anything else – although Plaid had a chance. So, it’s only Kirsty’s view which is given.

Is the Assembly about to revive the Bank of Wales ?

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Sep 292009

THE WELSH Assembly bank is at last to be set up, deputy first minister Ieuan Wyn Jones told us earlier today, writes Clive Betts from the Press Gallery.

This was much like the plan put forward before the election which established the Assembly just 10 years ago, and adopted. And then forgotten about.

Now it is being resurrected. Although the name will not be quite the same – largely because of the difficulties, even in those long-gone days, of government regulation. Of course, since then, the banks have started to smell, and even tougher regulations are ahead.

Mr Jones said the Assembly will be adopting a new strategy towards aiding the business sector in the wake of the depression.

“It is important for us to be looking post-recession; we must be looking at the shape of the help,” Mr Jones told the weekly press briefing.

The big need in the future will be for the sort of finance which previously came from the banks. It will still be available from that direction. But the terms will be significantly different. Much tougher.

That is where the Assembly will step in. It will set up a body (“a bank”) similar to the local banks established in Essex and Birmingham. Very much like the bank which the Assembly had spoken of establishing a decade ago, said a civil servant involved with the scheme then and, once more, now.

Apparently, other countries and regions are looking towards Wales for the lead which this country is giving in getting through the recession … presumably, in the same way that Wales is looking towards Essex and Brumland. But at least we were there 10 years ago.

David Williamson, the Western Mail correspondent at the Assembly, asked Mr Jones whether the financial help available might involve the Assembly taking equity stakes in the companies offered help.

One could almost imagine the headline about the Assembly trying to nationalise Wales.

No, said Mr Jones, the companies wouldn’t like that.

But is this still a sop towards your party’s own left wing, asked Cambria.

No, replied Mr Jones yet again.

Apparently, the companies favoured with Loans-Plus – apparently the precise formula has still to be worked out – will be those hosting a research and development element. This is because, according to the Assembly, this the sort of company which is more likely to hang about and not pull out the next time the going gets tough.

Mr Jones spoke about linking into the Assembly’s research and development strategy. Such firms would be favoured. He failed to spell out, however, what projects are contained within the Assembly’s R+D strategy.

Presumably, any company whose research produces a profitable development !

Asked for more detail, Mr Jones spoke of companies who needed finance to buy raw materials to fulfil orders. This may be an area where the banks are expected to be failing, and where the Assembly will be ready to step in.

The new bank will likely be run in consort with an existing bank.

While writing this blog, I did a search for Bank of Wales – and came up with chairman Geraint Talfan Davies’s blog for the Institute of Welsh Affairs site, written last November, who suggests that the Assembly take over the Bank of Wales name now lying totally dormant in the vaults of the now London government-owned HBOS group in Edinburgh.

GTD writes about the revival in local banks in the United States – where they aim at serving local business needs deemed too small to bother with by the big boys …

Sounds just like the problem we are facing in Wales. GTD adds some other uses for a revived Bank of Wales. And he points out that an intervention by the Assembly would not seem too much out of the ordinary as the Scottish Parliament has been possessed by the same sort of thoughts.

The Bank of Wales was set up by the former railway booking clerk Julian Hodge and it lasted from 1971 until 2002, with offices in Cardiff, Swansea, Newport, Carmarthen and Deeside, serving the business world with loans rather than the man-next-door.

It would be nice to see Mr Hodge’s bank revived. But of the course the Welsh need is for a commercial source of funds. As long as we don’t try looking in Iceland !

St Athan, the Lib Dem dropped brick, and Rhodri’s request for £100m

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Sep 282009

THE WELSH Lib Dems can expect to suffer plenty of embarrassment over their Westminster party’s plan to scrap the £13bn scheme to turn St Athan aerodrome into a giant military training establishment for the entire UK, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Hardline Nationalists don’t think much of the deal; they regard it as a scam to tie Wales tighter into the UK.

A fair number of non-Nats also have doubts, not least about handing the establishment over to the private enterprise Matrix consortium.

The Welsh Lib Dems have hitherto been supportive of the scheme – possibly primarily because of the 5,000 jobs it will generate. It was revealed at the time that Lib Dem Treasury spokesman Vince Cable announced the plan – intended to cut back on public spending – that the Welsh party had not been consulted beforehand.

Oh dear !

During the opening press conference of the new political term, First Minister identified St Athan as the Welsh equivalent of the two great schemes that will primarily and almost solely help London and the Home Counties – the Olympics and the CrossRail scheme from east and west central London.

Mr Morgan took the chance to tease Mr Cable over his idea – although no doubt far harsher words would be employed were the Lib Dems to have any chance to carry out their ideas.

Fortunately for them, because their British party conference was currently under way, the Lib Dem press briefing was cancelled.

The fact that some Pleidwyr would also be opposed could be ignored. After all, Saunders Lewis and ilk are no longer in charge of the party and the old pacifist views of some are of insignificant importance.

This is an issue where economics and jobs rather than other sorts of politics is supreme.

Its construction links neatly into the strategy being pursued by the Assembly Government to overcome the current economic crisis. In particular, the bid by both Rhodri and Ieuan to get London to advance £100m to be spent as a part of next year’s budget in advance of the date when Cardiff should be given that money.

Apparently, the same happened during the current financial year. And Scotland has made an equivalent bid for next year.

Mr Morgan argues that the reliance of Wales on the construction industry for jobs is a prime driver to his demand. We all know that construction and house-building have been hard hit.

And Mr Morgan argue that Wales may be one of the regions to emerge last from the economic crisis because of its dependence on construction.

Not the best place to be in, being so dependent on brickies. Or the best advert for the computer-savvyness of our population.

Mind you, any country can be attested in so many ways. Mr Morgan boasted about how well Welsh exports are holding up; better than most other “regions” of the UK.

PS. Could Mr Morgan have been so keen on helping brickies because they vote Labour ? Mind you, quite a few observers feel that, come the next election, Mr Morgan and his pals will be discovering that Mr Hodholder and co will no longer be putting their X beside Mr Brown and his lackies

As Mr Hodholder is unlikely to vote Tory in any numbers – whatever the swing to that party – perhaps it is here that Ieuan Wyn Jones and Plaid are hoping for their advance next spring and in 2011 …

Older Entries

Lib Dems s**t rather than glory

Jocelyn Davies a Plaid leadership contender?

Did Tory racists force Oscar to join Plaid?

When Darling’s squeeze is around your throat

Mistrust

What do you pay to attract foreign jobs ?

Is the Assembly about to revive the Bank of Wales ?

St Athan, the Lib Dem dropped brick, and Rhodri’s request for £100m

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