There was never a doubt that the Tories’ performance in Wales was clearly the best of any party in Britain, Clive Betts writes from the National Assembly press gallery.

The swing in votes from Labour was 7 per cent, compared with 5.2 in the north-east of England, and 4.2 in England’s north-west, the nearest challenging regions.

Of course, the use of such “swing” figures is a bit misleading as the concept dates from the days when only two significant parties exist. Now there are seven in Wales, and six in England.

But it still justified Tory leader David Cameron hopping on a train in Paddington to serenade his party leader in Wales on the steps of the National Assembly.

The location for him to meet Nick Bourne was significant. As was Mr Bourne’s robust answer to a journalist’s question about Cheryl Gillan’s alleged faux pas to Welsh university vice-chancellors when she raised the point about whether control of universities should be transferred back to London.

Ms Gillan’s meeting was private, under Chatham House rules – which means even the unmentionable can be discussed, on the strict understanding that even the walls have no ears.

In this case, one of the chancellors didn’t only have ears; he also had a memory, and the story leaked.

Mr Bourne rapidly shot it down. The story was old; the shadow Secretary of State did not believe that power should be sent back to London – “She said there is no question of this going back to Westminster,” said Mr Bourne.

Casually, at the start of the press gallery briefing, Mr Bourne mentioned he had had a word on some issue of other with the main would-be rival for his leadership, Jonathan Morgan.

Asked about this, he replied that of course he had had a word with Mr Morgan, as would be expected. And that was the end of the matter.

Curiously, a notice board in the Assembly carries a poster advertising a speech by Mr Morgan on “how the Tories WON the 2015 election”.

Clearly, the Welsh Tory Party is hardly a top-down organisation, as are both Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru, where everything comes from the top, and the underlings promptly jump to attention.

Of course, Mr Morgan might be about to tell us in alternative location in Cardiff what he will have achieved after four years as leader …

We were told later in the morning by the Lib Dems about how they were delighted when UKIP stood in an election – because that party took almost all its votes from the Tories. At the right-hand extremity of the political scale, UKIP is almost interchangeable with right-wing Tories..

Was Mr Bourne therefore concerned that the Assembly’s group of AMs had opted for a strongly pro-Assembly line, when it was clear that a strong element of conservatives were anti-Assembly and anti-EU, and when that group had managed to win a seat in Wales ?

The answer was simple – party policy is pro-Assembly, and even David Davies, the MP and former AM for Monmouth, was in agreement.

At least to Mr Bourne’s face.

Mr Bourne pointed out how little support exists anywhere for abolition of the Assembly – “The support for abolition is only 9pc,” in a recent opinion poll.

He could also have pointed out how weak the UKIP is in Wales.  Historically, the party has been based upon those who fought during the last war – and therefore dislike the Germans – and on those who dislike Europe because they remember the glories of the empire.

Thus, it is based largely in southern England.

As to its weakness in Wales … John Bufton, the successful candidate, exists in my list as the party’s Wales organiser.

Well, the party is so well organised that none of the journalists in this section of the Assembly press gallery had heard a word from it for some time. As far as the press is concerned, the party doesn’t seem to exist.

The party has already said that it will now contest Assembly seats.

That is a bit of a surprise, but perhaps inevitable after their Euro-wins. But when they fought the 2007 election, they came below even the National Front, scoring less than four per cent of the poll.

Mr Bourne plainly believes they will be wasting their time as “they will not get far with that message” of abolition. But then he mused, that perhaps they would change their stance.

After all, it happened with his own party. Even if Rod Richards, the former AM for North, is unrepentant in his opposition.

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Forget thoughts of depriving Nick Bourne of his leadership of the Tories, at least this side of the Assembly election in 2011.

The AM for Mid and West is on a roll – all thanks to London Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the series of gaffes and problems that have been visited upon him.

Peace has descended on the Tory ranks in the Assembly, despite ambitions bubbling away slowly in the background – particularly from Jonathan Morgan (South Central) and Darran Millar (Clwyd West).

But, when the party’s going upwards rapidly, there is little point in wrecking the brew by stirring too vigorously.

Speaking to the press, Mr Bourne was blunt that expectations  in the next Commons election – surely in 2010 – are no longer limited to Vale of Glamorgan (which will remove Alun Cairns from Cardiff Bay) and Cardiff North (which will remove Jonathan Evans from Brussels).

Mr Bourne said he was thinking in “double digit” terms, to embrace seats never before thought of as Tory, as well as those not held by the party for many years.

The importance of 2011 to a leadership election is that a poll at that time will bring a number of new faces into the Assembly. The change-over in faces is larger than experienced in the Commons where their first-past-the-post election system results generally in an as-you-were result.

If Mr Bourne fails to become First Minister (he is definitely in the running), all bets are off.

But if he manages to take over the big office on the fifth floor of the building currently occupied by Rhodri Morgan – where I am now working, any change in the Tory group leadership would, of course, be totally unthinkable.

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Lay down your forks, gentlemen, put away the knives you use to cut the bacon – or to make mincemeat of your opponents’ backs.

It has been quite clear since this morning’s annual FUW Assembly breakfast that talk of a coming Tory leadership revolution has been grossly exaggerated by malicious media-men and biased bloggers.

As no-one is going to publish – for some years, at any rate – minutes of alleged-plotters’ meetings, all we have to go on is what we can each find out, rather than products of an imagination.

After a series of chats today, several things become clear. First, those who have got a job to do in the world, even in politics, often never touch the output of blogs. They are regarded as inherently unreliable – partly because some are the product of fevered imaginations.

This morning’s FUW breakfast proved a useful gathering point for politicians – where minds and opinions could be searched.

First, senior Tories know that unity is essential if the party is to win or make inroads at the next elections – Europe this year; Westminster probably next; and Cardiff in 2011.

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Perhaps Welsh Labour’s press office would tell us which of their MPs they expect to lose his seat at the next general election.

The Conservative replacement would then be available to become shadow (or even the real) Secretary of State for Wales.

I asked Assembly business minister Carwyn Jones who that might be. Sensibly, he avoided the question.

In fact, the new shadow or actual Welsh Secretary will almost certainly be Jonathan Evans in Cardiff North. According to ITV’s voluminous Wales Yearbook 2009, the sitting MP has already decided to retire – Julie Morgan is Rhodri’s wife, so a retirement would be no surprise. But Wales on Sunday jubilantly crowed that no announcement had been made; in other words, the Yearbook had made a presumption.

The issue arises because of a hair-brained press release from Welsh Labour in Transport House under the name of Chris Ruane, Vale of Clwyd MP, alleging a “credibility crunch” for Tory leader David Cameron, in his failure to appoint one of his three Welsh MPs to his shadow cabinet this month.

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Nick Bourne is haring off leftwards so fast that it won’t be long before the Welsh Tory party stands to the left of Labour.

He kicked off his weekly briefing by advocating a £100 discount on their council tax bills for all pensioners. What about the millionaires ? For everyone, he replied; the matter’s too urgent.

Mr Bourne then slated the government’s removal of the 10p tax band: “Those at the bottom of the pile should be given help rather than those at the top,” he said.

Those two points followed his suggestion for what seemed suspiciously like a raising of the age for driving: insisting that youngsters below the age of 20 would not be allowed to carry passengers (as being considered in Belfast) is only one step away from making that the age for holding a licence.

Currently, power over driving licenses is held by London, so that would mean a transfer of functions Order.

And then there’s the issue of proportional representation using the preferred single transferable vote system, another issue being raised in the Assembly this week. Mr Bourne made plain his support at the local government level “from self-interest” and because, in a five-party world (with Independents), it is the only way of halting Labour domination.

Jonathan Morgan (Cardiff North) was sitting quietly in the back listening – one can hardly imagine him objecting to that sort of political agenda.

So which Tory AMs are possible objectors ? The Welsh party is changing so rapidly that I can imagine only three of the 12, and then we have to go back of political attitudes that they may have forgotten by now – Alun Cairns (South Central), William Graham (South East), and Darren Millar (Clwyd West).

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