THE FUTURE of Montgomery constituency is one that greatly concerns Lib Dem leader Kirsty Williams, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.
But Ms Williams’s hopes of gaining it back at the next poll – or next but one, supposing we see a repeat Westminster election within a short span, which now seems unlikely – seem unrealistic.
The loss of his seat seems to have been as much a surprise to the controversial sky-watcher Lembit Opik as well as to the winner, ex-AM Glyn Davies.
The holding-party, the Lib Dems, seem to have harboured no inkling that the worst was about to befall them.
Similarly the Tories failed to play up beforehand – although they mentioned it – the possibility of winning the seat.
However Glyn Davies, their candidate, seems a bit disingenuous to claim – as he seems to have done – that he had no victory speech prepared, which perhaps gives the idea that winning was somehow not on the realistic horizon.
The truth, of course, is that those with exceedingly long memories will recall that the constituency was retained for the Liberals for so long – probably for decades – purely because an official deal being reached by the constituency committees of each party.
The Conservatives would stand down and tell their supporters to vote for the Liberal. Shades indeed of what Nick Clegg finally delivered for what remains of the United Kingdom.
Precisely what the Liberal used to offer the Tories for that old agreement to stand down never got as far as the public prints.
But the understanding by both parties was that a large pool of similarly-minded voters – mainly, I suppose, small hill-farmers and their associates – was involved.
While makes Ms Williams’s expectation that the seat will return to the fold at the next election somewhat difficult to understand.
The party leader points to the significance of a clash between two big “personalities”. She adds she is convinced that Montgomery “is a Lib Dem seat at heart”.
She reminds us that the seat fell once before to the Tories – at the 1979 Thatcher landslide – but that it swiftly returned.
Ms Williams had to be told by the press that that earlier Tory was an entirely different kettle of fish from Mr Davies.
This week’s winner is a solid Montgomeryshire farmer – even though he some strange stories attached to his name, such as that which features himself driving a lorry while wearing no trousers. As Mr Davies tells the story against himself, you can be pretty sure that the tale doesn’t also feature anything like any of Mr Lembit’s numerous girlfriends.
No hint of a bra-strap, possibly, lying over the next seat … That would be hardly Glyn.
In contrast, the “kettle of fish” who previously held the seat for the Cons seemed a really fishy character, a bit smelly and a real “con-man” rather than a Con.
The stretch of time over which Delwyn Williams held the seat resulted in a steady stream of lurid headlines – plus several stories which were run by broadcasters but reckoned too stupid ever to make the printed page – which made his downfall entirely expected, as well as unlamented.
It was to that sort of background that the seat “went home” to the Lib Dems, to Alex Carlile.
It is true that the new winner Glyn Davies occasionally manages to contradict himself politically, but the thoughts he commits to his lengthy blog mark him out as a good-class thinker, with his heart deeply involved in the rural areas.
Much as I dislike saying it, I think Kirsty is going to be disappointed in her expectation that Montgomery will “come back to the fold”.
KIRSTY WILLIAMS seems willing to risk martyrdom, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.
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