CAMBRIA POLITICO

The new Welsh Tories

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics 3 Responses »

Nov 022011

During the Falklands war, a BBC reporter famously remarked that he had “counted” Fleet Air Arm planes in and had “counted them back”. Perhaps we should start doing the same with the significantly-enhanced group of 13 Conservative AMs.

Not that there is a fear that some might be lost in combat in a plenary session, or that they might fly off to political pastures new. that’s not a risk, particularly with Plaid (very well known to some of them) in its present state. But the party now possesses a new group leader, Vale of Glamorgan farmer Andrew RT (initials to distinguish him from the former Labour minister) Davies. And Mr Davies, regional AM for South Central, is a person who will listen carefully before deciding. Which is as a politician should do. The difference, of course, is that his predecessor Nick Bourne (Mid & West) was a man with beliefs. Beliefs so strong that he managed to rebuild the group totally from the days it was led by the lively right-winger Rod Richards, who headed an extremely strong campaign for a No vote to an Assembly, and didn’t seem to have changed his opinions much after he had won election.

Nick Bourne is the most obvious casualty of the Labour Party gerrymandering which changed the rules so that a politician could stand for either a constituency or a regional seat – not both. He was unseated when Russell George won Montgomery from the Lib Dems on Mick Bates’s retirement. Labour, of course, didn’t like the idea of dual-candidacy because it could help other parties. (When Labour changed the law they didn’t need to win any regional seats; currently, they have two, because they have won no constituency seats in Mid & West).

No-one doubts the new leader’s Welshness. He has better claims than his predecessor, who was from Worcestershire, although he had been in Wales since student days in Aberystwyth. Mr Davies’s family roots are in Newbridge on- Wye in Powys. His father moved to the Vale to start farming witha 70-acre smallholding until he became a tenant near St. Hilary, Cowbridge, before buying the farm and expanding. (Into how many acres – on two holdings, the other next door to former First Minister Rhodri Morgan at Michaelston-le-Pit – he won’t say. It’s not a done-question, apparently in the Vale!) the real difference between the pair could be over political stance. Mr Bourne was a leader in the left-wing Tory Reform Group, a grouping which fails to line up precisely with the political direction favoured by the Daily Mail and its numerous friends.

Leading members of the TRG include Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, former Welsh Secretary and current Foreign Secretary William Hague, a predecessor in Cathays Park, Peter Walker, David Davis (who quit as MP and then fought the subsequent by-election in protest at erosion of civil liberties), the Llanelli-born MP Robert Buckland (you might remember him from the Islwyn by-election after Neil Kinnock moved on), and Rene Kinzett, Tory group leader of Swansea council. This is the group which hoists aloft the once-discarded banner of one-nation Toryism. Prime Minister David Cameron may not be a member, but he’s certainly a supporter.

Mr Bourne never trumpeted his membership, and Mr Davies is careful not to pick sides on the issue. He talks of his need to represent a group with members from David Melding (South Central) who talks of the need for federalism, to Darren Millar (Clwyd West), who uses language Margaret Thatcher would have favoured. Mr Melding, in contrast, believes Thatcher’s name cripples the party in Wales. But then Mr Millar is a fellow federalist (though, no doubt, they don’t agree completely on that topic!). New in the post, and shadowed extremely closely in the leadership contest by party Leftist Nick Ramsay (despite claims, no recount was needed – there weren’t that many votes), it is perhaps no surprise that Mr Davies is cautious in his views. He is certainly going to be cautious about the possibility of distancing his group from the Tories at Westminster. Even talking about such issues as the Assembly’s controversial voting system.

Cheryl Gillan has already opened her mind to some sort of change to the constituency/regional system. But at present the Welsh Tory leader refuses to take the chance of forging something really radical and democratic, such as the single transferable vote – a system which could produce five-seat constituencies, withall members elected, Irish-style, by PR.

Mr Davies would rather see how the political-land lies. That’s why we’ve got to count his members in and out. How many of his group of 14 lean somewhat left-wards? It’s much easier to count those who don’t: just William George (SouthEast) and Darren Millar, surely. the Rights are easily outnumbered by the Lefties, ranging from the shadow minister (but then they’ve all got that position) whose ancestor faced the slashing sword blades of the 15th Hussars at Manchester in 1819 in a demonstration for Parliamentary reform, to the former Pleidwr.

I fancy the rest are in the middle. And middle-of-the road Tories always want to make whatever it is they are a member of, work, in the hope that the electorate will eventually give them their votes in gratitude. Which is why, of course, the (non-Thatcherite) Tories are the habitual governing party of much of Britain.

gan Clive Betts

The Tories didn’t do too well …

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics 2 Responses »

May 172010

THERE’S NO doubt that the Tories didn’t do as well as they had hoped and expected, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Leader Nick Bourne had spoken of the number of seats held possibly reaching double figures, and Alun Cairns, the South Central AM who was victorious in Vale of Glamorgan, talked of adding 10 to the pre-existing total.

Well, the party ended significantly short of double figures. Reason, perhaps, for party leader David Cameron to look askance at his Welsh party colleagues ?

Oh, no, retorted Nick Bourne. The Welsh party achieved a bigger swing in its favour than the party in England.

Or in Scotland. Although the party may as well have not been fighting north of the border for all the impact they had in that country, where they hold all of one seat, precisely as they did before the election was called.

No wonder Mr Bourne was happier talking about other political parties.

Plaid Cymru “went back in almost every constituency”.

No surprise that he pinpointed Aberconwy (based on Llandudno). Plaid had talked up their chances in that seat – which is held in the Assembly by Gareth Jones.

Mr Bourne reminded us where Plaid now stands in that seat. Fourth.

But then Aberconwy seems rather a strange seat. It contains two very different regions – the coastal strip, a lot of it English-retirement; and the upland inland acres of Welsh-speaking farmers

Mr Bourne even mentioned Ceredigion. Not the Liberal Democrat vote, but his own party’s lack of support. Luke Evetts ended up with only 12 per cent of the vote. “Caught in the middle,” said Mr Bourne.

But was a squeeze really the reason ? This, after all, is a seat which has never been held by the Tories (Labour slunk in once). And the party won an almost-identical vote in 2005.

Tories dream of bedding Labour

Welsh Politics No Responses »

May 122010

THE TORIES have won – or been forced into – a coalition with the Lib Dems, but at least some among their ranks even muse about forming an eventual coalition with Labour, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

There are many shades of Tories, and Welsh leader Nick Bourne seems stuck on one of the weakest, or at least strangest of those wings – perhaps that on the outside-left.

For which British Tory could openly talk of a possible coalition with the party which hates you most of all …

But that is what Nick did to the press gallery.

Mr Bourne had of course been closely involved with the attempt to form a Plaid – Lib Dem – Tory coalition after the last Assembly election in 2007. It collapsed with the Lib Dems at high level in Wales refusing to agree. And when they came to their senses, the time had passed.

In advance of the signing of the Westminster deal which eventually emerged, Mr Bourne was being very friendly to all and sundry. During the weekly party political briefings, Mr Bourne was brave enough to desist from utterly ridiculing the moves towards a multi-party Westminster coalition involving Labour, the Lib Dems and uncle Tom Cobbley.

Mr Bourne then continued musing to himself. Almost sotte voce.

He mentioned the unmentionable. Tories with Labour.

Admitting it was a “bit unlikely”, he added, “Never say never.”

Just like the grand alliances of Germany. Which uses a constitutional set-up basically penned for them by the British after the war.

A constitution which, with its reliance on a form of proportional representative-voting, bears a similarity to the system still in use in the Republic of Ireland, which had been written by Westminster for all of Ireland in 1914.

In Ireland, of course, almost anyone gets into bed with anyone. Although admittedly links with the unacceptable former-gunmen of Sinn Fein have happened only as part of a – perhaps forlorn – bid to keep the six counties with the UK.

Tory take-over of Wales?

Welsh Politics No Responses »

May 052010

SO, HOW’S it going to pan out on Thursday night, according gossip from the professionals of the press gallery according to Clive Betts?

Big Tory gains are almost certain in Wales.

Which means big Labour losses.

But perhaps little movement by the other parties. With the Lib Dems holding on to what they’ve got, although they possess the ability to surprise us.

And Plaid looking forward to celebrating their full centenary, by which time perhaps they’ll have got somewhere worthwhile

According to Nick Bourne, the Tories’ leader, the party will get “into double figures”, from holding only three seats at present.

Although, of course, Mr Bourne is not their “leader”. He is merely leader of the Tory group in the Assembly. His party has not yet grown up enough so far to allow someone based in Wales to lead the entire party in Wales.

Maggie (Thatcher, of course) even dreamed of a rugby-team of Welsh Tories. Well, no-one is talking in public of that happening.

But the reaction from 13 years of Labour governance could provide quite a bump in more constituencies than imagined. As well, indeed, in some where a quiet life is being hoped for by the incumbent.

There seem to be two groups of seats which the Tories list as winnable in Wales. They have spoken in the past of winning. Cardiff North, Vale of Glamorgan, Preseli, Carmarthen West, Aberconwy, Delyn and Montgomery.

To those we can easily add Clwyd West, Vale of Clwyd and perhaps Clwyd South.

Sharp folk will realise that the Tories’ list of possible (some might say, “probable”) wins differs somewhat from the list published in the invaluable Dod’s National Assembly for Wales Companion 2007.

But that’s how the real world is. Dod’s works strictly from figures; the Tories work from real people. And, so far, we are still more than statistics.

But to some people even the Tories’ hopes go too far. After all, some people may be getting fed up of Labour, but that party’s difficulties are of a different order to those which followed Maggie’s landslide after the Winter of Discontent – which featured bodies being left unburied because of trade union action.

Equally, local factors whose significance cannot be correctly measured in advance will lead to the survival of some incumbents. Such as Lemit Opik in Montgomery. After all, if he was offering willing farmers the services of the sister of one of his (many) former girl-friends, he may be able to pull it off. After all, farmers know all about bulls and cows.

But then senior Tories such as Mr Bourne add a couple of extra hopes to his wish list.

Such as Cardiff West, which Kevin Brennan is said to be scared of losing. Rhodri Morgan holds it in the Assembly. But this was Stefan Terlezki’s seat. So it’s not an impossibility.

Then there’s Bridgend. More likely, says Mr Bourne, to fall to his party than Gower (which has been long listed by far-sighted westerners, as it is seriously affected by immigration by middle-class Swansea workers).

Excluded entirely from this reckoning are several southern constituencies where Labour is in deep trouble due to a long-running, but slow, generation shift from the old Marxist influenced trade union politics of the old miners’ union.

Blaenau Gwent has already gone Independent. But “never underrate” Alun Davies, Labour’s candidate. Yes, never underrate Alun Davies. But quite possibly MP Dai Davies will hold on.

And what of Islwyn, where Don Touhig is retiring ? Although Plaid’s strong in the constituency and holds the council (Caerffili), the seat’s unwinnable at present.

The electorate are also looking for a successor to Paul Murphy, for when he retires from Torfaen.

Two nearby Labour seats do however feature retirements. More important, competent replacements from other parties are already lined up.

In both cases it is the Lib Dems who are providing the manpower. The party reckons Swansea West is the better bet. The party has been active for many years on the council – which it part-controls.

But Newport East has been developing under a strong candidate, Ed Townsend, a local councillor.

Which leaves Plaid Cymru to bring up the rear which befits a party whose election vote is shown by an opinion poll as having moved too little from five years ago.

Plaid expect to win Ynys Mon and Llanelli. And they would like to add Aberconwy, dominated by Llandudno – but it’s too close to call.

Is this why Bourne is threatening to abstain?

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics No Responses »

Feb 032010

THE WELSH Tory group at the Assembly is being faced with a terrible conundrum over the referendum on extra powers for Wales which the Labour-Plaid government plan to hold either later this year or in the first half of next year, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

The party seems to have only one demand. This is that the referendum is NOT held on the same day as next year’s Welsh general election.

But what is their true reason for threatening to abstain when the “trigger motion” is debated and voted on next Tuesday ?

Their abstention – if combined with the Lib Dems – would cause the motion to be lost as it would fail to gain the necessary enhanced majority which the Government of Wales Act demands.

One reason for taking this attitude is that they are looking over their shoulders towards the hoards of devolution-sceptics who lurk within that party’s undergrowth.

Mr Bourne is acting in the way that a leader really should act – he has decided that the only way forwards for his party is to turn its back on its years of opposition to devolution; instead, it must embrace the concept.

Both Mr Bourne and David Cameron, his party leader in London, have emphatically stated that they would not stand in the way of the holding of a referendum

But, faced with a definite demand that he put his name to an advance in that previously-abhoured policy, Mr Bourne may feel that he has to demand a price from the two government parties

That price seems to revolve around the date of the referendum.

Questioned by Cambria at the weekly press briefing on why he was taking this stance, Mr Bourne gave a reason very similar to that touted by the Lib Dems – who are making a very similar demand.

He talked of the difficulties of running a Yes campaign, and also of the dangers of finding that campaign muddled both with the practicalities of a Welsh general election campaign, with the very different policy arguments being put forward in that battle.

But there could be another reason why Mr Bourne and the Tories are opposed to the referendum and election both being held on the same day.

When Cambria put that particular reason to Mr Bourne, he was honest enough to admit that this particular idea had indeed crossed his mind. But he had rejected it.

Yet when Cambria asked a very senior figure in Plaid Cymru why the Tories might be so opposed to the use of the same date for two elections, he (or it could be she) was extremely blunt.

“Because they would lose votes in the Assembly election,” this individual said. This would happen, it is argued, because of voters linking a Yes vote in the referendum to a vote for one of the three obviously pro-Assembly parties.

Equally, of course, No voters would be more likely to turn to the Tories. But the first group of voters would outweigh the second in terms of numbers.

Which means that the Tories in London have likely laid down the law to Mr Bourne – separate the two polls, or you’re in trouble with us. Which explains the strength of his threat to abstain – and, with luck, kill moves for a double vote on one day.

Of course, any No vote to the trigger-vote proposal – and that is how an abstention would be portrayed by other parties – would risk undoing so much of the good pro-Welsh work which Mr Bourne and some of his colleagues have been achieving with his group and party over the past few years.

It would risk the Tories seen yet again as the “English party”. Which is the last thing which they would want. Even if some in the grassroots would be unconcerned.

Let’s call it the General Election!

Welsh Politics 4 Responses »

Feb 022010

WORDS EXPRESSED by politicians can sometimes mean rather more than they mean on the surface, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

For instance – “general election”. We all know that one has to be held by next June.

But that is for the parliament which meets in London.

But another election has to be held by the following June – although May is the expected date. That is the poll for the Cardiff Assembly.

When the first poll was held in 1999, the powers that decided how that poll should be conducted put it out that the last May vote of the last century should by described as the “Welsh general election”.

And who was the power that took that decision ? As it was no doubt taken a long time in advance of the vote, the decision was surely taken by the furthest-thinking politician from Wales who has had a finger in a governmental pie for many decades, if not for almost a century.

In other words, Ron Davies, at the time Secretary of State for Wales and AM for Caerffili.

His idea was that the new Assembly was in no way a jumped-up county council, as it was termed by many who had voted No in the preceding referendum. As well as by some very senior figures at the Western Mail – or should we go back to calling it, Llais y Sais ?

The election was in its own way as important as the other election at which the Welsh attended at the polling booths for each four years or so, the general election for Westminster. Therefore, the May 1999 event was the general election for Wales.

But as the new century has dragged along, the term the term has fallen into disuse. I don’t think I ever heard it used in either 2003 or 2007. And neither have I heard it with reference to 2011.

Until today. Tory leader Nick Bourne was arguing about the date on which a referendum should be held to decide whether extra power should be given to the Welsh Assembly.

Mr Bourne was emphasising the position which his party had taken.

The referendum “should not be held on the date of our general election”, said the leader of the Tory group.

So, the phrase that Plaid Cymru, the Labour Party and the Lib Dems have been ignoring ever since 1999 has at last returned from the purgatory to which it was consigned.

Congratulations Nick.

Now, when Ron put forward the phrase, he had the backing of the entire governmental publicity machine to ensure it remained in peoples’ minds. Nick hasn’t – yet – got that far in his political progress.

So, it’s up to the leaders of the other three parties of their own volition to start using the term, as well. Of course, if Carwyn and Ieuan, First Minister and deputy, cotton on, they will be able to prevail upon the governmental publicity machine to use it as well.

And then we’ll all be happy that Wales is no longer being treated as second rate.

New-style Tories now David’s in the imperial Parliament ?

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics No Responses »

Dec 072009

ARE WE seeing a new-style Tory party in the Assembly, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery ?

Nick Bourne has done much to rescue the party group in the Assembly from the right-wing days when everyone harked back to Thatcherism.

Comments, for instance, on the party’s central policy towards Europe consistently leaned towards the line that there was no need for a referendum once every country had accepted the Lisbon treaty … hardly a line which the party’s Euro-sceptics are very keen on.

The latest stage in the re-make came with the room where the party’s group of AMs held its weekly meeting.

On the outside it was broadly labelled “Equal Opportunities Committee”.

Now that was the committee from which a Tory AM was ejected because his publicised ideas were so much at variance with the committee’s aims.

David Davies, the former AM for Monmouth, was replaced by one of his more-acceptable colleagues.

But David is now confined to Westminster. And the party group is meeting in a room marked for the committee he was ejected from.

As they say, the Tory party is changing fast.

These three Tories should do the decent thing and join UKIP

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Nov 182009

THE CONSERVATIVES moved yet further into the pre-Assembly camp. Of course the group wants more powers for this place, party leader Nick Bourne told the weekly press briefing, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Well, what about more AMs to cope with the amount of work currently involved, he was asked.

Particularly in the view of the party’s aim to reduce the number of MPs at Westminster?

To which we obtained no reply, beyond a touch of humming and haa-ing.

Currently, of course, the numbers of MPs and AMs are closely linked.

But everyone acknowledges that 60 AMs is insufficient.

Think of all the policy-influencing and scrutiny that has had to be abandoned through the ending of the subject committee shodowing each minister. These bodies met every fortnight; and every month the minister had to give a long report on which he or she was closely questioned (interrogated might be a better word).

These reports were by far the best source of information on what was happening within the Assembly and in particular the government.

But they have gone; forced out of existence by lack of AMs and time.

You could almost see Nick Bourne weeping tears at what has been lost.

So, would the Tories carry over the attack on the number of Westminster politicians to include those at Cardiff Bay ?

No reply.

Instead, we were presented with the need for longer working hours in terms of Assembly sessions.

But as the Tories rightly claim that much of the time in Assembly sessions is taking up with the mouthing of political platitudes for pretty much no point whatsoever, could it be that Mr Bourne is secretly creaming of the return of the old-style committee sessions.

Does that mean he wants to isolate Cardiff as much as possible from the politicians-axing that would get under way at Westminster when the Tories take power ?

Of course, no-one would really complain if the Tories axed those troglodytes in Monmouth, Preseli and Clwyd West. David Davies, Stephen Crabb and David Jones are so much out of touch with modern Toryism that they should go off and do the decent thing.

Resign the Tory whip and join UKIP They we’d see whether they are popular enough to get re-elected.

Older Entries

The new Welsh Tories

The Tories didn’t do too well …

Tories dream of bedding Labour

Tory take-over of Wales?

Is this why Bourne is threatening to abstain?

Let’s call it the General Election!

New-style Tories now David’s in the imperial Parliament ?

These three Tories should do the decent thing and join UKIP

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