CAMBRIA POLITICO

The new Welsh Tories

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics 3 Responses »

Nov 022011

During the Falklands war, a BBC reporter famously remarked that he had “counted” Fleet Air Arm planes in and had “counted them back”. Perhaps we should start doing the same with the significantly-enhanced group of 13 Conservative AMs.

Not that there is a fear that some might be lost in combat in a plenary session, or that they might fly off to political pastures new. that’s not a risk, particularly with Plaid (very well known to some of them) in its present state. But the party now possesses a new group leader, Vale of Glamorgan farmer Andrew RT (initials to distinguish him from the former Labour minister) Davies. And Mr Davies, regional AM for South Central, is a person who will listen carefully before deciding. Which is as a politician should do. The difference, of course, is that his predecessor Nick Bourne (Mid & West) was a man with beliefs. Beliefs so strong that he managed to rebuild the group totally from the days it was led by the lively right-winger Rod Richards, who headed an extremely strong campaign for a No vote to an Assembly, and didn’t seem to have changed his opinions much after he had won election.

Nick Bourne is the most obvious casualty of the Labour Party gerrymandering which changed the rules so that a politician could stand for either a constituency or a regional seat – not both. He was unseated when Russell George won Montgomery from the Lib Dems on Mick Bates’s retirement. Labour, of course, didn’t like the idea of dual-candidacy because it could help other parties. (When Labour changed the law they didn’t need to win any regional seats; currently, they have two, because they have won no constituency seats in Mid & West).

No-one doubts the new leader’s Welshness. He has better claims than his predecessor, who was from Worcestershire, although he had been in Wales since student days in Aberystwyth. Mr Davies’s family roots are in Newbridge on- Wye in Powys. His father moved to the Vale to start farming witha 70-acre smallholding until he became a tenant near St. Hilary, Cowbridge, before buying the farm and expanding. (Into how many acres – on two holdings, the other next door to former First Minister Rhodri Morgan at Michaelston-le-Pit – he won’t say. It’s not a done-question, apparently in the Vale!) the real difference between the pair could be over political stance. Mr Bourne was a leader in the left-wing Tory Reform Group, a grouping which fails to line up precisely with the political direction favoured by the Daily Mail and its numerous friends.

Leading members of the TRG include Ken Clarke, Michael Heseltine, former Welsh Secretary and current Foreign Secretary William Hague, a predecessor in Cathays Park, Peter Walker, David Davis (who quit as MP and then fought the subsequent by-election in protest at erosion of civil liberties), the Llanelli-born MP Robert Buckland (you might remember him from the Islwyn by-election after Neil Kinnock moved on), and Rene Kinzett, Tory group leader of Swansea council. This is the group which hoists aloft the once-discarded banner of one-nation Toryism. Prime Minister David Cameron may not be a member, but he’s certainly a supporter.

Mr Bourne never trumpeted his membership, and Mr Davies is careful not to pick sides on the issue. He talks of his need to represent a group with members from David Melding (South Central) who talks of the need for federalism, to Darren Millar (Clwyd West), who uses language Margaret Thatcher would have favoured. Mr Melding, in contrast, believes Thatcher’s name cripples the party in Wales. But then Mr Millar is a fellow federalist (though, no doubt, they don’t agree completely on that topic!). New in the post, and shadowed extremely closely in the leadership contest by party Leftist Nick Ramsay (despite claims, no recount was needed – there weren’t that many votes), it is perhaps no surprise that Mr Davies is cautious in his views. He is certainly going to be cautious about the possibility of distancing his group from the Tories at Westminster. Even talking about such issues as the Assembly’s controversial voting system.

Cheryl Gillan has already opened her mind to some sort of change to the constituency/regional system. But at present the Welsh Tory leader refuses to take the chance of forging something really radical and democratic, such as the single transferable vote – a system which could produce five-seat constituencies, withall members elected, Irish-style, by PR.

Mr Davies would rather see how the political-land lies. That’s why we’ve got to count his members in and out. How many of his group of 14 lean somewhat left-wards? It’s much easier to count those who don’t: just William George (SouthEast) and Darren Millar, surely. the Rights are easily outnumbered by the Lefties, ranging from the shadow minister (but then they’ve all got that position) whose ancestor faced the slashing sword blades of the 15th Hussars at Manchester in 1819 in a demonstration for Parliamentary reform, to the former Pleidwr.

I fancy the rest are in the middle. And middle-of-the road Tories always want to make whatever it is they are a member of, work, in the hope that the electorate will eventually give them their votes in gratitude. Which is why, of course, the (non-Thatcherite) Tories are the habitual governing party of much of Britain.

gan Clive Betts

Blow away the Ynys Mon blow-in

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics 11 Responses »

Jan 132010

The parachutist from leafy Surrey

ARE THE Tories committing political suicide in Anglesey, writes Clive Betts from the National Assembly press gallery ?

And even if the party is not committing suicide on the island, their choice of a rank outsider who has probably hardly been to the island, or indeed to Wales, demands that the gent concerned must be politically neutered before he sets foot in parliament.

According to the way that the Commons is currently operating, any MP from Wales can help strike down law-making proposals produced by the democratically-elected Assembly in Cardiff.

Unless Mr Anthony Ridge-Newman, the newly-selected Tory candidate from Surrey, can reveal that he knows a hell of a lot about Wales, he should take a string of cotton to the Commons when (more probably, if) he ever enters it. With the aid of a needle, he should tightly sow his mouth shut so that he never has any effect on anything to be with the governance of this country.

After all, Ynys Mon is considered a winnable seat at the Westminster election by the Tories both in London and Cardiff.

It has been held before by the party and seems to many commentators a prime target – provided the right candidate is chosen.

Unfortunately, fate is not dealing well with the local right-wingers. An excellent local candidate who was hoping to be picked had to drop out because too little time had been left for all procedures to be completed – although the individual might put his name forward again for the Senedd seat.

With an election due by June, no time could be lost in finding a replacement. But the party has run into a major mess finding a suitable one.

They have ended up picking a rank outsider, who with any luck will likely to perform exceedingly badly. Anthony Ridge-Newman comes all the way from Surrey. If he knows anything about the island, it may be about how to find a decent beach.

Mr R-N is described as a researcher into “internet democracy” – whatever that is. He’s aged in his 30s, and gossip is that he is one of London Central Office’s favoured sons, although that is denied by the Tories’ spokesman in Wales, who says he performed well from a decent-length short list.

This is not the first time the local Tories have made a total hash of finding a candidate – presumably too many on the selection committee are either blow-ins, or are aiming to gain the blow-ins’ votes.

Perhaps they are thinking of following the line taken by some Labour constituencies – pick a Welshman or someone with Welsh orientation for Cardiff, and someone as English as they come for London.

Some years ago the Ynys Mon Tories parachuted into the seat a candidate from Monmouthshire. In fact, he was a good candidate – but only for somewhere else. Such as Monmouth, which he won and held for a time.

I covered that election for the Western Mail at the time. As Roger Evans went around the constituency, he had to put up with local people (generally of the younger voting generation) physically laughing at him (from a distance, of course).

I thought the Tories had passed the stage that they treated Wales as an offshoot of the Home Counties for promising candidates. So did Nick Bourne when he was questioned at the first press briefing of the new term.

Under questioning, he made it clear that he was concerned about a parachutist taking over the seat. Mr Bourne had checked with London about another Surrey gent who had been named as favoured by London Central Office for Anglesey –- but he was not even on the candidates’ list.

So there was a second blow-in being considered by local Tories…

Not that the party’s press spokesman in Cardiff would agree with concerns about the Englishness of his own party’s candidates. ‘Ninety per cent are either of Welsh background or living in the country’, he said.

Whether that figure includes Ynys Mon’s new blow-in, I don’t know. Whilst one has to put up with trainees standing in unwinnable seats, it’s pretty unacceptable that any total outsider could potentially second-guess decisions already taken by the Assembly.

Should he ever win the seat, he should be formally barred by his party from saying anything at Westminster about any policy which comes under the remit of Cardiff.

Mind you, not all parachutists need be total failures. The previous Tory MP for the island was Keith Best, who was broad-enough minded to turn out one of the best … in many ways.

The problem is that the Labour Party in London has left Wales with a potentially-dangerous constitutional non-settlement. Quite clearly, no party should now be allowed to choose outsiders to contest winnable Welsh seats, from which basis they can proceed to overrule democratic decisions by Cardiff.

These three Tories should do the decent thing and join UKIP

Welsh Politics No Responses »

Nov 182009

THE CONSERVATIVES moved yet further into the pre-Assembly camp. Of course the group wants more powers for this place, party leader Nick Bourne told the weekly press briefing, writes Clive Betts from the Assembly press gallery.

Well, what about more AMs to cope with the amount of work currently involved, he was asked.

Particularly in the view of the party’s aim to reduce the number of MPs at Westminster?

To which we obtained no reply, beyond a touch of humming and haa-ing.

Currently, of course, the numbers of MPs and AMs are closely linked.

But everyone acknowledges that 60 AMs is insufficient.

Think of all the policy-influencing and scrutiny that has had to be abandoned through the ending of the subject committee shodowing each minister. These bodies met every fortnight; and every month the minister had to give a long report on which he or she was closely questioned (interrogated might be a better word).

These reports were by far the best source of information on what was happening within the Assembly and in particular the government.

But they have gone; forced out of existence by lack of AMs and time.

You could almost see Nick Bourne weeping tears at what has been lost.

So, would the Tories carry over the attack on the number of Westminster politicians to include those at Cardiff Bay ?

No reply.

Instead, we were presented with the need for longer working hours in terms of Assembly sessions.

But as the Tories rightly claim that much of the time in Assembly sessions is taking up with the mouthing of political platitudes for pretty much no point whatsoever, could it be that Mr Bourne is secretly creaming of the return of the old-style committee sessions.

Does that mean he wants to isolate Cardiff as much as possible from the politicians-axing that would get under way at Westminster when the Tories take power ?

Of course, no-one would really complain if the Tories axed those troglodytes in Monmouth, Preseli and Clwyd West. David Davies, Stephen Crabb and David Jones are so much out of touch with modern Toryism that they should go off and do the decent thing.

Resign the Tory whip and join UKIP They we’d see whether they are popular enough to get re-elected.

UKIP raving Assembly-lovers?

Welsh Politics 4 Responses »

Jun 102009

There was never a doubt that the Tories’ performance in Wales was clearly the best of any party in Britain, Clive Betts writes from the National Assembly press gallery.

The swing in votes from Labour was 7 per cent, compared with 5.2 in the north-east of England, and 4.2 in England’s north-west, the nearest challenging regions.

Of course, the use of such “swing” figures is a bit misleading as the concept dates from the days when only two significant parties exist. Now there are seven in Wales, and six in England.

But it still justified Tory leader David Cameron hopping on a train in Paddington to serenade his party leader in Wales on the steps of the National Assembly.

The location for him to meet Nick Bourne was significant. As was Mr Bourne’s robust answer to a journalist’s question about Cheryl Gillan’s alleged faux pas to Welsh university vice-chancellors when she raised the point about whether control of universities should be transferred back to London.

Ms Gillan’s meeting was private, under Chatham House rules – which means even the unmentionable can be discussed, on the strict understanding that even the walls have no ears.

In this case, one of the chancellors didn’t only have ears; he also had a memory, and the story leaked.

Mr Bourne rapidly shot it down. The story was old; the shadow Secretary of State did not believe that power should be sent back to London – “She said there is no question of this going back to Westminster,” said Mr Bourne.

Casually, at the start of the press gallery briefing, Mr Bourne mentioned he had had a word on some issue of other with the main would-be rival for his leadership, Jonathan Morgan.

Asked about this, he replied that of course he had had a word with Mr Morgan, as would be expected. And that was the end of the matter.

Curiously, a notice board in the Assembly carries a poster advertising a speech by Mr Morgan on “how the Tories WON the 2015 election”.

Clearly, the Welsh Tory Party is hardly a top-down organisation, as are both Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru, where everything comes from the top, and the underlings promptly jump to attention.

Of course, Mr Morgan might be about to tell us in alternative location in Cardiff what he will have achieved after four years as leader …

We were told later in the morning by the Lib Dems about how they were delighted when UKIP stood in an election – because that party took almost all its votes from the Tories. At the right-hand extremity of the political scale, UKIP is almost interchangeable with right-wing Tories..

Was Mr Bourne therefore concerned that the Assembly’s group of AMs had opted for a strongly pro-Assembly line, when it was clear that a strong element of conservatives were anti-Assembly and anti-EU, and when that group had managed to win a seat in Wales ?

The answer was simple – party policy is pro-Assembly, and even David Davies, the MP and former AM for Monmouth, was in agreement.

At least to Mr Bourne’s face.

Mr Bourne pointed out how little support exists anywhere for abolition of the Assembly – “The support for abolition is only 9pc,” in a recent opinion poll.

He could also have pointed out how weak the UKIP is in Wales. Historically, the party has been based upon those who fought during the last war – and therefore dislike the Germans – and on those who dislike Europe because they remember the glories of the empire.

Thus, it is based largely in southern England.

As to its weakness in Wales … John Bufton, the successful candidate, exists in my list as the party’s Wales organiser.

Well, the party is so well organised that none of the journalists in this section of the Assembly press gallery had heard a word from it for some time. As far as the press is concerned, the party doesn’t seem to exist.

The party has already said that it will now contest Assembly seats.

That is a bit of a surprise, but perhaps inevitable after their Euro-wins. But when they fought the 2007 election, they came below even the National Front, scoring less than four per cent of the poll.

Mr Bourne plainly believes they will be wasting their time as “they will not get far with that message” of abolition. But then he mused, that perhaps they would change their stance.

After all, it happened with his own party. Even if Rod Richards, the former AM for North, is unrepentant in his opposition.

Who will shadow who?

Welsh Conservatives, Welsh Politics 5 Responses »

Jan 202009

Perhaps Welsh Labour’s press office would tell us which of their MPs they expect to lose his seat at the next general election.

The Conservative replacement would then be available to become shadow (or even the real) Secretary of State for Wales.

I asked Assembly business minister Carwyn Jones who that might be. Sensibly, he avoided the question.

In fact, the new shadow or actual Welsh Secretary will almost certainly be Jonathan Evans in Cardiff North. According to ITV’s voluminous Wales Yearbook 2009, the sitting MP has already decided to retire – Julie Morgan is Rhodri’s wife, so a retirement would be no surprise. But Wales on Sunday jubilantly crowed that no announcement had been made; in other words, the Yearbook had made a presumption.

The issue arises because of a hair-brained press release from Welsh Labour in Transport House under the name of Chris Ruane, Vale of Clwyd MP, alleging a “credibility crunch” for Tory leader David Cameron, in his failure to appoint one of his three Welsh MPs to his shadow cabinet this month.

Lisa reminds the Nats about their Welsh language promise

Plaid Cymru 2 Responses »

Dec 022008

A voice from the past was heard in the National Assembly telling the Welsh government how to give assistance to the Welsh language – a subject where they have failed to make any discernable progress.

To emphasise how little is happening, the Tories are putting forward a formal proposal to appoint a Language Commissioner.

The voice from the past was that of Lisa Francis, the Tory AM for Mid and West, who failed to be returned after the last elections – not because she was not good enough, but because of the vagaries of the proportional electoral system in the Assembly.

Lisa had gone out to Ireland, where she had investigated the work of the Irish Language Commissioner. The result was that the Tories adopted a policy for a Welsh Language Commissioner – although surely for purely presentational and vote-getting reasons, the word “Welsh” is now omitted, so that it would seem that the person appointed could also speak out and campaign on behalf of “suffering” English-speakers.

Lisa came back with a policy for a commissioner who would be able to campaign strongly, as well as deal with complaints from affronted Welsh-speakers – as party leader Nick Bourne made clear yesterday, the party was really thinking only of “affronted” Welsh-speakers.

The Welsh government is endlessly putting forward new dates for when its new Legislative Competence Order on the Welsh language will be published – last spring, then summer, autumn, and now Christmas – and I think they mean Christmas this year.

To highlight this failure, South Central Tory AM David Melding (who is also Welsh Tory director of policy) has now brought forward his own LCO. Perhaps it deals with a slightly different subject from the government’s – not so much additional ways in which the language can be used, but rather establishing a language commissioner.

Mr Melding almost seems to be looking backwards to a Labour government policy which had to be abandoned by the last administration- abolishing the language board, and appointing a commissioner in its place.

Lisa’s proposed commissioner would no doubt have been rather stronger than the former Labour government’s. After all, Labour wouldn’t want to be annoying some of its heartland stalwarts by doing too much for the language…

In any case, even Mr Melding doesn’t expect anything to happen to his proposed LCO – apart from tomorrow’s plenary refusing him the right to introduce it. Admitting that the idea came from your own election manifesto is perhaps not the best way to persuade the government to adopt it. Particularly when the government’s supposed to be cooking its own…even though it’s not getting very far in the quagmire that is Whitehall.

Plaid props up illegal Labour dictatorship

Welsh Politics 4 Responses »

Jul 272008

There’s one thing you can say about the Glasgow election result. None of us can be sure quite why it happened, but we all knew who would pick up the winnings.

The few London journalists who know that much about Scotland seem agreed that moribund Labour has reached a late-stage of decline. And that half-a-century of control of Glasgow East with nothing to show to the local electorate bar mass poverty indicates that they deserve totally what they’ve been hit with.

Precisely the same can be said for Wales. The message last May from Merthyr, Blaenau Gwent, Newport and Torfaen – and in truth the same message came from Rhondda Cynon Taf, except that the incumbents were too complacent to realise it – indicated that the exit-door has been opened to Labour councillors.

But there’s one almighty difference between Scotland and Wales. The SNP possesses a leader who is able to dictate the political agenda…

Perhaps, indeed, it’s not Plaid’s leader who should be blamed, but the party itself. I’m unsure whether Clem Attlee would have set Britain alike with SNP-style barnstorming.

But Clem possessed an enormous message – we’re still living with the NHS part of it, even if much of the rest, such as BRS, was ditched by others as quickly as decently possible.

Does Plaid possess any such message ?

Look at what’s happening in Torfaen. Readers of the Free Press, the local weekly, were much entertained by the fury of protest when Labour, having lost so many votes and seats, were returned to power, courtesy of Plaid and a couple of other councillors.

Many of us wondered for how long the local fury would continue. Well, it continues still.

No Jones apology as the views of a nation change ?

Welsh Politics 1 Response »

Jul 092008

It seems David Jones, MP for Clwyd West, is none too happy about me having suggested that he had issued a “sort of” apology over his blogged remarks about the light weight of much Assembly legislation.

He also denied had been “breathed on” by the party hierarchy over comments which most of us saw as being anti-Assembly. Continue reading »

Older Entries

The new Welsh Tories

Blow away the Ynys Mon blow-in

These three Tories should do the decent thing and join UKIP

UKIP raving Assembly-lovers?

Who will shadow who?

Lisa reminds the Nats about their Welsh language promise

Plaid props up illegal Labour dictatorship

No Jones apology as the views of a nation change ?

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